February 25, 2022
Dr Rawiri Taonui Covid Omicron Māori | Phase three – This generation’s 1918
Phase 3 Omicron Response
Aotearoa has now moved to Phase 3 of the Omicron Response. This means:
• Only confirmed cases and their household contacts are required to isolate. Isolation is for 10 days.
• All other contacts are to monitor symptoms but do not have to isolate.
• Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs) will become the primary form of testing in the community.
• RATs will be available from thousands of sites around the country including GP practices, pharmacies, and workplaces.
• Retail outlets will sell approved RATs from March.
• Those who test positive will self-report and self-notify their close contacts.
• Ministry of Health PCR testing and contact tracing resources will now focus on high-risk locations like hospitals and aged care facilities.
• Advice on Self-Isolation is available here.
• A basic Self-Isolation Plan is available here.
General Situation
• There were 6,137 new community cases yesterday.
• There are 205 people in hospital and two in ICU.
• There are 27,611 active cases in the community.
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Omicron
• Omicron took 15 days to go from 126 cases on 1 February to pass 1,000 daily cases on 16 February, five days to pass 2,000, three days to reach 3,000, and one day to double to 6,000 cases.
• According to modelling from Te Pūnaha Matatini predicts the Omicron OutBreak will peak at 10,000 to 30,000 cases per day in the third week of March.
• Cases are running ahead of the lower 10,000 cases per day estimate. We will pass this mark within the next week.
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Ethnic Trend of Cases
• Pacific peoples dominated daily cases during the middle of this month.
• Over the last two days, cases in the Pākehā community have set consecutive records with 1,182 and 2,407 new cases.
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Low Māori Case Numbers
• Māori have had the lowest cases of the four main ethnicities for most of this month.
• This reflects the success of early December $120 million ‘Delta’ Funding for Māori, and the work of Māori health providers, leaders, and communities in achieving the fastest decline in cases of all ethnicities during December.
• There were 901 new cases in the Māori community yesterday. Māori cases have now passed those in the Asian community.
• With lower overall vaccination rate, vaccination resistance in some DHBs and vulnerabilities in health and housing, Māori cases will rise more steeply, particularly when transfer occurs into provincial, urban-rural, and remote areas.
Status of Current Cases
• The following table shows new cases by vaccination status and ethnicity since 19 January.
• Overall, there are many more cases among the vaccinated community because the vaccinated are now 80.5% of the total New Zealand population.
• The strength of the December/January Māori Covid-19 response means Māori are just 13.3% of all new cases. This is lower than our 17.1% demographic and 3.5 times lower than non-Māori/Pacific.
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• Unvaccinated 12yrs+ Māori (27.3%) and partially vaccinated Māori (30.2%) respectively contribute 1.6 times and 1.8 times our demographic to the national total.
• Fully vaccinated (12.6%) and boosted Māori (8.0%) contribute much lower than our demographic and respectively are 3.6 times and 7.8 times lower than non-Māori/Pacific (45.5% and 62.7%).
Status of Current Hospitalisations
• The following table shows new hospitalisations by vaccination status and ethnicity since 19 January. The numbers show unvaccinated Māori have a higher risk of hospitalisation.
• Despite lower Māori cases this month, unvaccinated Māori 12yrs+ (27.1%) are more hospitalisations than the entire non-Māori/Pacific community (25.0%).
• Unvaccinated tamariki Māori (28.2%) have similar hospitalisations to non-Māori/Pacific (33.3%).
• By contrast, Māori hospitalisations for fully vaccinated (14.7%) and boosted (12.1%) are respectively 2.2 and 4.4 times lower than for non-Māori/Pacific (32.3% and 53.4%).
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Overall Ethnic Data since August 2020
• Pacific peoples are the most impacted group in the current outbreak with 14,529 total cases.
• Māori have the third-highest number of cases behind Pākehā.
• Māori have the lowest number of active cases because of the excellent mahi in our communities during December/January.
• Māori remain the second-highest number of hospitalised cases because of the extremely high cases in our community between September and November last year.
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Update on Deaths
• The Ministry of Health has updated the age and ethnicity of deaths that occurred in January.
• There 56 deaths since Covid-19 first arrived in Aotearoa. Māori are 19 (33.9%) of all deaths.
• 30 of those deaths have been during the Delta–Omicron OutBreak which began on 17 August last year. 14 (46.7%) of those deaths were Māori.
• 11 of the Delta-Omicron deaths happened after 8 December. Eight were Māori.
• Deaths during Omicron will be higher for Māori.
Current Risk profile per 100k of Population
• On current case numbers and outcomes per 100,000 of population, Māori are 3.7 times more likely than Pākehā to be infected with Covid-19, 6.1 times more likely to be hospitalised and 10.0 times more likely to die.
• One in 22 of every Māori who has been hospitalised during this outbreak has died compared to one in every 36 Pākehā.
• Māori make up the largest proportion of younger deaths.
Active Cases
• 20,900 active community cases are in the Auckland and Waikato District Health Boards (DHBs).
• Numbers are lower in the regions because of lower populations and distance from larger urban centres. Numbers will grow significantly over the next week.
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Māori Cases by DHB
• The following table shows the number and percentage of Māori cases in each DHB compared to Pacific peoples and non-Māori/Pacific.
• The pattern is higher Māori cases in high population areas (as expected) but also higher Māori cases in under-vaccinated Māori DHBs like Northland, Lakes, and the Bay of Plenty.
• The unvaccinated at most at risk of illness and hospitalisation.
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This is our 1918
Māori face our greatest test with Omicron. Omicron is hyper-transmissible because of its enhanced ability to evade natural and vaccine-stimulated antibodies.
Most cases will be mild. The sheer number of cases will nevertheless mean many more will require hospital treatment than anything we have seen before. There will be more deaths, not 1918 scale, but more than so far with Covid-19.
Māori have put up a formidable Covid-19 response. Whānau Ora, Te Whakakaupapa Urutā, the Iwi Leaders Pandemic Response Group, the Māori Council, the National Māori Authority, Māori paediatricians, Māori pharmacists, a host of others, totally awesome. There is strength in our communities and abundant leadership young and old.
Unvaccinated Māori are most at risk. Omicron will hit large numbers of Māori self-isolating at home. Phase 3 leaves lower resourced less financially secure Māori to self-manage testing, illness, and household contacts.
Plan and prepare. Trust Māori providers. Work together. Make simple decisions based on what is best for your whānau and loved ones. Be willing to bend but not break the rules.
Protect whakapapa and whanau. Protect tamariki. Prioritise booster and tamariki vaccinations. Support and care for the unvaccinated, if necessary, respect the right of unvaccinated adults to live with the consequences of their decision.
Remember the costs of the last time hundreds of Māori self-isolated from disease. This is our 1918. Survive.
Noho haumaru, stay safe.
Dr Rawiri Taonui