June 30, 2013
Labour not home and hosed yet
Opinion: The Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election has turned into a fascinating battle.
Most commentators were picking an easy victory for the Labour candidate and tribal chief executive Meka Whaitiri, but that now doesn't seem to be the case.
Labour has polled the electorate and while Meka is in front, the Mana candidate Te Hamua Nikora is apparently too close for comfort and chasing hard in second place.
A loss for Labour in this seat would be catastrophic and would give Hone Harawira and Mana the moral high ground in the Māori seats.
Te Hamua is an outstanding candidate; he is a former TV star and is well known in the electorate.
I have watched him closely over the years and I always felt he was a great talent on stage as a comedian and MC.
Of course transferring those skills to becoming an MP are not automatic and being a good MP requires discipline and a serious approach to issues.
However, it seems that Te Hamua has captured the imagination of many of the constituents with his relaxed, entertaining and humorous approach, and his line that he is a creation of the electorate and people in the area "see themselves in him" is a message that is resonating.
The Māori Party candidate Na Raihania has run a strong campaign. Na is an exceptional candidate; he has a union leadership background and ran a very respectable second to Parekura Horomia in 2011.
Unfortunately for him the leadership divisions in his party will count against him, which is a shame because he has been the standout performer in the debates.
Also it seems that the Māori Party's relationship with National has not helped his chances.
Marama Davidson from the Green Party is also an excellent candidate. She has performed well and has run a strong Mana wahine message, however, she does not live in the area and the Greens are not really seen as anything other than list options.
So Labour will be pulling out all stops tomorrow as they seek to retain this seat, the last thing Labour leader David Shearer needs right now is a loss in a safe Labour seat.
If the unthinkable happened and they did lose, that would surely spell the end of Shearer's leadership.
Losing 6 per cent in a poll is one thing but losing a 6000 majority in a safe Māori seat won't be tolerated.
As much as I'd love to see that happen, I don't think it will. If there had been one candidate representing the Māori Party, Mana and the Greens then an upset would have been on the cards.
The split vote should ensure a Labour victory which they will gratefully accept no matter what the winning margin.