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Maori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell’s chance of retaining his Waiariki seat has dropped to just 53 percent, according to online prediction marketplace iPredict.
Mana’s Annette Sykes now has a 47 percent probability of winning, up from 40 percent last week.
If Mr Flavell can’t hold on the Maori Party will be extinguished in parliament, with Labour’s Adrian Rurawhe’s chances of winning the Te Tai Hauauru seat being vacated by Tariana Turia being rated at 80 percent and Peeni Henare having a 71 percent probability of winning Tamaki Makaurau.
Hone Harawira’s hold on Te Tai Tokerau is also strengthening, with Mana now 79 percent likely to retain the seat, up from 71 percent last week.
However his Internet Mana alliance is expected to garner just 20 percent of the list vote.
The overall result is still close, with New Zealand First expected to decide whether the country has a National or Labour-led Government after September’s election.
Copyright © 2014, UMA Broadcasting Ltd
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