June 28, 2013
Low turnout will favour Labour in by-election
It’s the last day of the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by-election campaign.
Political commentators are picking it should go to Labour candidate Meka Whaitiri, despite enthusiasm in social media from supporters of Mana’s Te Hamua Nikora.
Former Alliance president Matt McCarten says while Mana had the best campaign on the ground, the expected low turnout means it should be safe for Labour, with Mana, the Maori Party and the Greens vying for second.
"If Labour lost the seat it would be shattering, it would change the whole dynamic, but given that by-elections tend not to get a lot of attention in Maori seats unless it's something like Hone (Harawira) running or Tariana (Turia) when she left Labour, but there's no really big issue and therefore I expect the vote will be down," he says.
Mr McCarten says to have a chance of winning Mana would have needed an authoritative poll showing it in a strong second, which could have caused some of the vote for the other minor parties to switch over.
Copyright © 2013, UMA Broadcasting Ltd