Te Pāti Māori president and Tāmaki Makaurau candidate John Tamihere is defending one of the most unconventional election strategies in recent political history, with the party concentrating its efforts on winning the seven Māori electorates while encouraging supporters to split their votes between Te Pāti Māori candidates and other opposition parties.
With the November 7 general election approaching, Tamihere is leading a campaign that places Māori electorate representation at the centre of Te Pāti Māori’s political ambitions.
The party has reinforced its strategy by submitting an unusually short party list, naming general secretary Lance Norman as its sole additional list candidate.
The decision signals that Te Pāti Māori is placing greater emphasis on winning electorate seats than securing additional MPs through the party vote.
A Different Approach to the Māori Vote
Under New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional electoral system, voters have two votes: one for their preferred electorate candidate and another for the political party they want represented in Parliament.
Te Pāti Māori is encouraging supporters to give their electorate vote to its candidates while considering Labour or the Greens for their party vote.
Tamihere argues that this approach could increase the combined parliamentary representation of parties opposed to the current Government.
The strategy is based partly on the possibility of creating an overhang in Parliament, which can occur when a party wins more electorate seats than its share of the party vote would otherwise entitle it to.
However, an overhang is not guaranteed. Its impact depends on the election results, including electorate victories, party-vote totals and the allocation of parliamentary seats.
The strategy also represents a departure from the more conventional approach of political parties campaigning for both votes.
A One-Person Party List Raises the Stakes
Te Pāti Māori’s decision to submit a party list containing only Lance Norman has attracted considerable attention.
Most political parties use their lists to secure additional representation and provide a pathway into Parliament for candidates who do not win their electorates.
By limiting its list, Te Pāti Māori is signalling that its immediate priority is securing direct representation through the seven Māori seats.
The approach carries political risks.
If the party loses electorate contests, it has fewer opportunities to bring candidates into Parliament through the list.
At the same time, the strategy allows Te Pāti Māori to present itself as concentrating on direct Māori electorate mandates rather than maximising its own party-vote representation.
The party’s campaign therefore places considerable importance on the performance of individual candidates across the motu.
Polling Shows a Complex Picture
Recent polling suggests Māori voters are considering a range of options ahead of election day.
A Horizon poll commissioned by Mata Reports found that 28 percent of surveyed voters on the Māori roll intended to give their party vote to the Greens, compared with 27 percent for Labour and 16 percent for Te Pāti Māori.
Tamihere has linked the Greens’ increased support to his party’s strategic voting message.
However, other factors may also be influencing voter preferences, including the Greens’ policy positions on Māori rights, housing, the environment and Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
Electorate polling also reveals differences between individual contests.
In Waiariki, a Whakaata Māori-Curia survey conducted between September 21 and October 1 placed Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi on 42 percent support for the electorate vote.
Green Party candidate Tania Waikato recorded 16 percent, while Labour’s Toni Boynton received 14 percent.
Another 18 percent of respondents remained undecided.
The same survey found a much closer party-vote contest, with Labour on 24 percent, Te Pāti Māori on 23 percent and the Greens on 21 percent.
The findings illustrate how Māori voters may distinguish between their preferred local representative and their preferred political party.
Tāmaki Makaurau in the Spotlight
For Tamihere, the campaign is also personal.
As Te Pāti Māori’s candidate for Tāmaki Makaurau, he is seeking to represent one of the country’s most politically significant Māori electorates.
The seat was won by Te Pāti Māori’s Oriini Kaipara in the 2025 by-election, defeating Labour’s Peeni Henare.
That contest demonstrated the importance of candidate recognition, local campaigning and the relationship between electorate representation and national party politics.
Tamihere’s candidacy now places him directly into the electoral contest while he continues his responsibilities as party president.
The campaign will test whether Te Pāti Māori can maintain support among urban Māori voters while defending its wider political strategy.
Māori Representation and the Battle for Parliament
Beyond individual electorate contests, the debate raises broader questions about Māori political representation.
Te Pāti Māori argues that winning the Māori seats can strengthen independent Māori political representation and influence the composition of the next Parliament.
Labour, meanwhile, is campaigning to regain Māori electorate seats and is encouraging voters to support its candidates and party.
The Greens are also seeking greater support among Māori voters through their own candidates and policy programme.
The different approaches reflect competing views about how Māori interests can best be advanced through Parliament.
They also highlight the importance of understanding how the electorate and party votes operate under MMP.
For voters, the choices involve both the person they want representing their electorate and the political party they want influencing the direction of the next Government.
Election 2026: The Final Weeks
With less than four weeks until polling day, Te Pāti Māori faces a significant test of its electoral strategy.
The party is seeking to secure the Māori electorates while persuading voters that splitting their votes could influence the overall parliamentary balance.
But the outcome will depend on the choices made by voters across all seven Māori seats, alongside the nationwide party vote.
For John Tamihere, the final weeks of the campaign will involve defending the party’s strategic approach while making his own case to voters in Tāmaki Makaurau.
For Māori voters, the election presents an important opportunity to assess competing policies and approaches on issues including housing, healthcare, the cost of living, employment, whenua and Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
As election day approaches, the contest for the Māori seats is shaping up as a significant part of the wider battle over representation and the future direction of Aotearoa.
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