Treasury’s latest pre-election books point to an improving outlook for the Government finances, but economist Professor Matt Roskruge says the bigger question is whether that improvement is being felt by whānau.
The PREFU forecasts a smaller deficit and a return to surplus in 2028/29, providing a more positive picture of the Crown accounts after several difficult years.
But Roskruge says the headline fiscal numbers tell only part of the economic story, with unemployment, household costs, inflation and pressure on public services continuing to shape the everyday experience of New Zealanders.
The picture is particularly important for Māori and rangatahi, where employment outcomes and the rising cost of essentials can have a disproportionate impact on household wellbeing and the ability of whānau to get ahead.
With Election 2026 approaching, the debate is increasingly shifting from whether the Government books are improving to when households will begin to experience a meaningful recovery themselves.
Speaking on Ata Tū, Roskruge says measures such as employment, wages, household purchasing power and access to essential services will be important indicators of whether an improving fiscal position is translating into stronger living standards.
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