New Zealand’s natural gas reserves have dropped to their lowest level on record, raising fresh concerns about the country’s future energy security and the stability of industrial gas supply.
New data released by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment shows proven and probable natural gas reserves fell sharply over the past year, continuing a long-term decline across major gas fields.
As of January this year, New Zealand’s proven plus probable gas reserves had dropped significantly, with officials warning gas supply is reducing faster and sooner than previously forecast.
MBIE says falling production from major fields including Pohokura, Māui, Mangahewa and Kupe has contributed to the decline, alongside revised estimates from field operators about how much recoverable gas remains underground.
Forecasts now suggest annual gas production could fall below 100 petajoules by 2026 — several years earlier than previous estimates.
The declining reserves are intensifying debate around New Zealand’s energy future, particularly as industries and electricity generation continue relying on natural gas during the transition toward renewable energy sources.
Energy analysts warn lower gas availability could place upward pressure on electricity prices and create supply risks for manufacturers and heavy industry dependent on gas.
The Government says the latest figures reinforce the need to encourage greater investment in gas exploration and production, with Resources Minister Shane Jones pointing to moves to remove the offshore oil and gas exploration ban and reform Crown Minerals legislation.
Critics, however, argue the country should instead accelerate investment in renewable energy and reduce dependence on fossil fuels altogether.
Environmental groups say the decline in gas reserves highlights the urgency of transitioning to cleaner energy systems while improving energy resilience and affordability for households and businesses.
The issue is particularly significant for regions like Taranaki, where the oil and gas sector remains a major employer and economic contributor.
At the same time, renewable energy now makes up a record share of New Zealand’s overall energy supply, reflecting ongoing growth in geothermal, wind and solar generation.
The sharp decline in gas reserves is expected to remain a major political and economic issue as New Zealand balances energy security, industrial demand and climate commitments in the years ahead.
