Here are my punts on the 7 Māori electorates.
The Māori Electorates are a lot more conservative than most punters reckon, but they have also had an influx of younger voters thanks to the enormous demographic bubble within Māoridom that has 70% of the population under 40.
How these younger voters vote will have enormous implications on the final vote.
- Hauraki-Waikato: Labour have an amazing candidate in Kingi Kiriona and he will absolutely generate more Party vote for Labour, but Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke is a superstar and should win the seat for TPM again.
- Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: Cushla Tangaere-Manuel is an amazing candidate for Labour and I think she will hold this seat for them again.
- Tāmaki Makaurau: I think Oriini has been very flakey since she won a staggering by-election win and that Labour’s new candidate Kerrin Leoni has the gravitas for an electorate as important as this one. I think Kerrin has the edge going into this election.
- Te Tai Hauāuru: Debbie Ngarewa-Packer should win this comfortably.
- Te Tai Tokerau: TTT is a kingdom unto themselves, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi should retain the seat for TPM.
- Te Tai Tonga: It will be interesting to see if Tākuta Ferris can hold the seat as an independent, but I think Labour will come through the middle
- Waiariki: Rawiri Waititi would romp home here.
The Greens have put up amazing Māori woman candidates this election and I think they will harvest a huge Party vote for the Greens and Labour has a chance to pick up 2 electorates.
I think Te Pati Māori will hold 4 electorates and get a lower party vote than that which will create an MMP overhang meaning Te Pati Māori will make it harder for the right to get to 51% and may well have a role in the formation of the next Government if National is to be defeated.
Labour’s real gain will be picking up two Electorates and taking back a lot of the 23% of Māori who voted for National in the 2023 general seats.
Where Māori vote and who they vote for will determine the 2026 Election.
