#Election2026: Māori Voters Could Hold the Key as Polls Point to a Wide-Open Race

With fewer than 100 days until the General Election, Māori political commentator Professor Ella Henry says the polls are opening up important questions about where Māori voters are heading, whether traditional party loyalties are shifting and just how influential the Māori vote could become on November 7.

Professor Ella Henry (Ngātikahu ki Whangaroa, Ngāti Kuri, Te Rārawa) is a Māori academic and commentator specialising in Māori politics, governance and representation. She joins Waatea as the latest polling points to an increasingly competitive election where neither of the two major parties appears to be dominating the political landscape.

The latest RNZ-Reid Research polling paints a complicated picture: declining approval for the leaders of both National and Labour, pressure on National that is not automatically translating into gains for Labour, and the possibility of smaller parties playing a decisive role in determining who forms the next government.

For Māori voters, that creates an election environment in which electorate contests, party votes and tactical decisions could all matter.

National’s pain isn’t automatically Labour’s gain

One of the most significant features of the polling is that dissatisfaction with the Government does not necessarily mean voters are moving directly towards Labour.

That matters because New Zealand’s MMP system creates considerably more possibilities than a straightforward National-versus-Labour contest.

If support fragments between parties, smaller political movements can acquire disproportionate influence over the final shape of Parliament.

For Māori voters, the choice is particularly complex.

Alongside National and Labour are Te Pāti Māori and the Greens, while Māori voters in the general electorates can also influence contests involving ACT, New Zealand First and other parties.

That means the Māori vote is not one single bloc — and understanding where it moves could become critical.

The Māori electorates are only part of the story

Much political attention traditionally focuses on the seven Māori electorates.

Those races remain enormously important, particularly following the political upheaval within Te Pāti Māori and the emergence of independent candidates.

But Māori electoral influence extends much further.

Large numbers of Māori remain enrolled on the general roll, meaning Māori voters could help decide marginal general electorates across the motu.

Then there is the party vote, which ultimately determines the proportional composition of Parliament.

That creates three different contests to watch: who wins the Māori electorates, how Māori voters influence general seats, and where the Māori party vote ultimately lands.

Are Māori voters becoming more tactical?

Election 2026 is also testing whether Māori voters are becoming increasingly willing to split their votes.

Te Pāti Māori has already generated debate around tactical voting, while Labour and the Greens continue to campaign for both electorate and party votes.

The question is whether voters see those instructions as compelling — or make their own calculations based on candidates, policies and which coalition they want governing after November 7.

For Professor Henry, the polling provides an opportunity to look beyond headline party percentages and consider the political behaviour underneath them.

Māori voters are not politically uniform.

Differences in age, income, geography, whakapapa connections and whether someone lives in urban or rural Aotearoa can all influence political priorities.

Cost of living versus constitutional issues

The election also presents Māori voters with competing priorities.

Te Tiriti o Waitangi, the Waitangi Tribunal, Māori representation, co-governance, te reo Māori and tino rangatiratanga remain significant political issues.

But so too are the everyday pressures facing whānau.

Housing affordability, unemployment, wages, grocery prices, healthcare and education are increasingly prominent across the campaign.

The challenge for political parties will be demonstrating they understand that these issues are not necessarily separate.

For many Māori households, economic policy and Māori policy intersect through access to whenua, housing, employment, health, education and the ability to build intergenerational wealth.

Could smaller parties decide the Government?

The wider polling picture also raises the prospect that the next government could depend heavily on negotiations involving smaller parties.

That makes every percentage point increasingly important.

A relatively small movement in the Māori party vote could change the parliamentary arithmetic, particularly if the major blocs remain closely matched.

It also means the threshold, electorate victories and the performance of potential coalition partners will be watched almost as closely as National and Labour.

Less than 100 days — but plenty can change

Polls remain snapshots rather than predictions.

Campaigns matter.

Candidate performances matter.

Debates matter.

And events between now and November 7 could dramatically reshape voter priorities.

But the current numbers suggest Election 2026 is far from settled.

For Professor Ella Henry, the bigger question is therefore not simply who Māori are voting for today.

It is what Māori voters are telling political parties about the issues that will determine their votes — and whether those parties are listening.

With fewer than 100 days remaining, Māori voters could become one of the decisive forces of Election 2026 — not only across the Māori electorates, but through party votes and marginal seats right across Aotearoa.

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