“Chasing like rainbows every full moon”
on the failed leadership coup
The political battle lines heading into Election 2026 are becoming clearer, with the Government’s response to the COVID-19 inquiry, Christopher Luxon’s leadership crisis and the growing influence of New Zealand First all feeding into an increasingly unpredictable contest.
The Government has accepted all recommendations from the second phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the COVID-19 response in some form, putting pandemic preparedness and public trust back onto the political agenda.
The inquiry examined some of the most contentious aspects of New Zealand’s pandemic response and the lessons that should be carried into any future national health emergency.
The Government’s response comes as voters are already being asked to judge its performance across a much broader range of issues, including the economy, unemployment, the cost of living and the stability of the coalition.
And stability has suddenly become a major election issue.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has survived his second National Party confidence vote in four months after Chris Penk mounted a challenge to his leadership.
Luxon emerged from a marathon caucus meeting saying he had the support of National MPs, before stripping Penk of his ministerial portfolios.
But surviving the vote has not removed questions about National’s internal divisions.
With the November 7 election less than three months away, National now faces the challenge of convincing voters its leadership crisis is over and that the party remains capable of providing stable government.
Hovering over that turmoil is Winston Peters and New Zealand First.
NZ First has been showing renewed electoral strength, creating the prospect that Peters could once again play a decisive role in determining who occupies the Beehive after election day.
That possibility has become even more significant because Labour leader Chris Hipkins has now formally ruled out forming a government with New Zealand First.
Hipkins says NZ First will have no role in any government he leads, meaning Peters’ pathway back to power now sits firmly on the centre-right. Peters had already ruled out working with Labour.
The decision simplifies one part of the coalition equation while making another much more important.
A vote for NZ First could now prove critical to whether National, ACT and New Zealand First can secure enough seats to remain in government.
That creates a complicated challenge for Luxon.
National needs its coalition partners to retain power, but it must also compete with them for voters.
NZ First has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to distinguish itself from National while serving inside the same Government, while ACT continues to pursue its own political agenda and constituency.
For Māori, the coalition arithmetic carries particular significance.
The current term has featured major political battles involving Te Tiriti o Waitangi, te reo Māori, Māori health, public sector policy and the relationship between Māori and the Crown.
Those issues mean the election will not simply be a contest over who becomes prime minister.
It will also determine which parties have the leverage to shape the next government and what conditions they attach to their support.
The COVID inquiry provides another test of that wider question of trust.
The challenge for the Government will be demonstrating that lessons from the pandemic have translated into practical improvements in preparedness, decision-making and public confidence.
At the same time, Luxon must rebuild confidence in his own leadership following an extraordinary week in which National MPs were forced to decide whether he should continue leading them into the election.
National may have settled that question inside the caucus room.
Voters have yet to settle it outside.
With Labour closing the door on New Zealand First, Peters tied to the centre-right, Luxon attempting to reunite National and the COVID response again under scrutiny, Election 2026 is increasingly becoming a contest not only about individual policies but about trust, stability and who New Zealanders believe should wield power after November 7.
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