New Zealand is at growing risk of missing almost every major climate target, with a new Climate Change Commission monitoring report warning that current government policies are no longer sufficient to meet future emissions budgets or the country’s long-term 2050 climate commitments.
The report paints a concerning picture, concluding that while greenhouse gas emissions have fallen in recent years, the pace of reduction is too slow and many of the gains have been driven by temporary factors rather than lasting structural change. It warns that the second emissions budget for 2026 to 2030 is now at increasing risk, while current policies are unlikely to deliver either the third emissions budget or the 2050 net-zero target without significant new action.
The independent Commission found that more than half of the emissions reductions the Government is relying on to meet the second emissions budget are now considered to be at significant risk. It also concluded that current projections show New Zealand is unlikely to achieve its 2030 biogenic methane reduction target, with expected reductions falling short of the statutory goal.
The findings have reignited criticism of the Luxon Government’s climate programme, with environmental organisations and opposition parties arguing the Government has weakened or reversed many of the policies needed to reduce emissions.
A report released alongside the political debate argues that changes made since the coalition took office—including the removal or scaling back of climate initiatives across transport, energy and environmental policy—have undermined New Zealand’s ability to meet both domestic emissions budgets and its international climate commitments. Supporters of the report say the cumulative effect of those policy reversals has increased climate risks while delaying investment in cleaner technologies and resilient infrastructure.
The Climate Change Commission also warned that delaying emissions reductions will ultimately increase costs for households, businesses and the wider economy. It says earlier action would improve resilience, reduce exposure to volatile global energy markets and lower the long-term cost of transitioning to a low-emissions economy. The report notes that heavy reliance on forestry offsets, combined with uncertainty surrounding the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, leaves the country vulnerable if expected emissions reductions fail to materialise.
Among the Commission’s key concerns is that recent reductions in industrial emissions have largely resulted from lower production rather than technological improvements or permanent emissions reductions. Gross emissions also stalled during 2024 following increased coal-fired electricity generation during a dry year, highlighting ongoing vulnerabilities in the country’s energy system.
The Government has maintained that it remains committed to meeting New Zealand’s climate obligations while pursuing a more practical and cost-effective approach. Climate Change Minister Simon Watts has recently defended legislative changes to the Climate Change Response Act, arguing they will streamline planning requirements, reduce duplication and improve the efficiency of New Zealand’s climate framework while requiring councils to better prepare for climate risks.
However, the Commission cautions that the window for meaningful action is narrowing rapidly. It says if additional measures are not introduced within the next one to two years, meeting future emissions budgets and several key climate targets may no longer be feasible.
For Māori communities, many of whom face disproportionate impacts from flooding, coastal erosion, drought and infrastructure vulnerability, the report reinforces concerns that delayed climate action could further widen existing inequities while increasing the cost of adaptation for whānau, hapū and iwi.
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