New Zealand’s waste generation appears to have stabilised after several years of sharp decline, with new industry figures suggesting the economy may be emerging from one of its weakest periods in recent years.
The Waste & Recycling Industry Association (WRIA) 2025 Waste & Recycling Snapshot shows 4.2 million tonnes of waste were handled by the country’s major waste and recycling operators during 2025. While this represents a slight decrease from almost 4.4 million tonnes in 2024, it marks a significant slowing in the steep decline seen since 2022, when annual waste volumes exceeded 6 million tonnes.
The report covers data from WRIA’s seven member organisations, together with major recyclers in Auckland and Christchurch. Collectively, they are responsible for collecting around 95 percent of New Zealand’s household waste and recycling and manage approximately 70 percent of municipal landfill waste, making the report one of the country’s most comprehensive indicators of waste generation.
According to WRIA Executive Director Barney Irvine, the figures reflect more than simply what New Zealanders throw away.
Waste generation has long been viewed as a reliable indicator of economic activity, particularly within sectors such as construction, manufacturing and commercial business.
The dramatic fall in waste volumes over recent years coincided with a slowing economy, reduced building activity and weaker business investment.
Building and construction remain the largest contributors to landfill waste, meaning reduced construction activity has had a direct impact on national waste volumes.
The latest figures suggest that decline may now be easing.
Commercial and industrial waste fell only modestly during 2025, decreasing from 3.5 million tonnes to 3.3 million tonnes, while household waste remained virtually unchanged at 879,000 tonnes.
The stability in household waste indicates that although New Zealanders continue to face financial pressure, most households have maintained spending on everyday necessities such as food and beverages.
Rather than consuming less, many households appear to be purchasing lower-cost alternatives as they continue managing higher living costs.
While overall waste generation has remained relatively steady, the report highlights a significant shift in where recyclable materials are processed.
The proportion of recycling processed within New Zealand dropped from 66 percent in 2024 to 54 percent in 2025.
Over the same period, recycling sent overseas increased substantially from 23 percent to 36 percent, while approximately 10 percent continued to be disposed of in landfill.
The primary reason for the change was the closure of Oji Fibre Solutions’ paper and cardboard processing facilities during 2024 and 2025.
Those facilities represented New Zealand’s only large-scale processors of paper and cardboard, leaving the country without domestic capacity to handle significant volumes of those materials.
The closures also resulted in the loss of manufacturing capability and associated employment, with recyclable paper and cardboard now largely exported for processing overseas.
Despite the change, the waste industry says the overall recycling system remains resilient.
Most recyclable materials, including glass, metals and several plastics, continue to be processed domestically, while international demand for clean paper and cardboard remains strong.
Industry leaders argue the key objective is ensuring recyclable materials continue finding productive end markets rather than being diverted to landfill.
However, the report also raises longer-term concerns.
New Zealand’s recycling sector remains heavily dependent on access to overseas processing markets for some materials.
Should international demand weaken or import restrictions tighten—as has occurred previously in several global markets—the country could face growing challenges managing recyclable materials domestically.
The report warns plastics may present a particular risk if overseas processing options become more limited.
Without additional domestic infrastructure or alternative processing solutions, greater volumes of recyclable plastics could ultimately be diverted to landfill.
The association says planning for those scenarios should begin now.
It is calling for stronger collaboration between central government, local authorities, industry and community organisations to strengthen New Zealand’s long-term recycling capability and improve resilience against future market disruptions.
For Māori, waste management increasingly intersects with broader conversations around kaitiakitanga and environmental stewardship.
Many iwi and hapū continue leading projects focused on reducing waste, restoring ecosystems and developing circular economy initiatives that reflect tikanga Māori and sustainable resource use.
As New Zealand seeks to balance economic recovery with environmental responsibility, the latest figures suggest the country may have reached a turning point.
The challenge now will be ensuring economic growth does not simply generate more waste, but instead drives greater investment in recycling, resource recovery and a more sustainable circular economy.
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