With just over two weeks until New Zealand heads to the polls, the election campaign is entering a critical stage, with shifting party support, the emergence of Opportunity as a potential kingmaker and fresh questions about whether Te Pāti Māori can recover enough ground to influence the next Parliament.
Political commentator and researcher Dr Lara Greaves joins Radio Waatea’s Dale to examine the latest polling, the changing political landscape and what the numbers could mean for Māori voters.
National Bounces Back as Labour Comes Under Pressure
The latest 1News Verian poll, released on October 20, shows National climbing four percentage points to 32%, while Labour has slipped to 27%.
The result gives Christopher Luxon’s National Party a five-point lead over Labour, although other recent polling has presented a different picture of the contest.
The Greens have climbed to 16%, ACT is sitting at 11% and New Zealand First has fallen to 8%.
Meanwhile, Opportunity, formerly known as The Opportunities Party, is polling at 7%, placing it above the five-percent threshold required to enter Parliament through the party vote.
The results underline the uncertainty surrounding the November 7 election, with smaller parties potentially playing an important role in post-election negotiations.
Opportunity Could Hold the Balance of Power
One of the campaign’s most significant developments has been the rise of Opportunity, led by Qiulae Wong.
Its polling position raises questions about whether the party could enter Parliament for the first time and what role it might play in determining the next government.
However, the situation is complicated by National leader Christopher Luxon’s repeated refusal to consider working with Opportunity.
Wong has indicated she would approach National first if the election result placed her party in a position to negotiate, before considering discussions with Labour.
For voters, the emergence of another party capable of winning parliamentary representation adds a new dimension to an already competitive election.
Can Te Pāti Māori Recover?
For Māori voters, one of the most important questions is whether Te Pāti Māori can rebuild its support before election day.
The latest 1News poll places the party below one percent in the nationwide party vote, meaning its ability to secure representation would depend heavily on winning Māori electorates.
But the significance of those electorate contests extends beyond Te Pāti Māori’s own parliamentary representation.
Under New Zealand’s electoral system, electorate victories can create additional parliamentary seats when a party wins more electorates than its party-vote entitlement.
That makes the Māori electorates potentially important to the overall parliamentary numbers.
In one scenario modelled by Verian, Te Pāti Māori retaining four electorates, alongside a seat for the Te Tai Tokerau Party, would increase Parliament to 124 seats.
Under that scenario, Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, the Te Tai Tokerau Party and Opportunity would collectively hold 64 seats, one more than the 63 required for a majority.
A different scenario, in which Te Pāti Māori wins only one electorate, produces a substantially different parliamentary calculation.
These are polling scenarios rather than predictions of election results.
Māori Electorates Under the Spotlight
The campaign also raises broader questions about whether national party polling accurately reflects the dynamics within individual Māori electorates.
Candidate recognition, local campaigning, iwi and community relationships, voter turnout and the issues affecting whānau may all influence electorate contests.
For Te Pāti Māori, the challenge is not simply rebuilding nationwide party support but also maintaining the constituency relationships needed to compete in the Māori seats.
The party has also faced political scrutiny following controversy surrounding a meeting involving gang members, whānau and political representatives.
How voters respond to that controversy, alongside wider concerns about housing, healthcare, the economy and Te Tiriti, remains an open question.
A Campaign Where Every Seat Matters
Dr Greaves’ discussion with Dale examines the changing electoral landscape and the implications of a Parliament in which neither major party may be able to govern without negotiating support from smaller parties.
The latest polling also highlights how the Māori electorates could affect parliamentary seat calculations, particularly if overhang seats are created.
But with campaigning continuing and voters still making their decisions, polling remains a snapshot rather than a final result.
The October 20 Verian survey questioned 1,003 eligible voters between October 15 and 19, with a maximum sampling error of approximately 3.1 percentage points.
As election day approaches, the questions are becoming increasingly important: Can Labour reverse its recent polling decline? Will Opportunity convert its support into parliamentary seats? And can Te Pāti Māori recover sufficiently in the Māori electorates to play a significant role in the next Parliament?
Dr Lara Greaves joins Dale on Radio Waatea to unpack the campaign, the polling and what the final weeks could mean for the future of Aotearoa.
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