The election race has tightened sharply in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, with National losing support, the Greens gaining ground and the shape of the next government increasingly dependent on negotiations between multiple parties.
The poll, published by RNZ, shows a significant movement away from National and towards parties on the left, adding further uncertainty to an already highly competitive Election 2026 campaign.
The Green Party is among the major beneficiaries of the latest movement, recording a surge in support that strengthens the combined position of parties on the left as voters prepare to head to the polls on 7 November.
The result also puts renewed attention on The Opportunity Party, with its level of support potentially giving the party an important role in determining how the numbers fall after election day if it secures parliamentary representation.
For National, the poll represents a setback at a critical stage of the campaign and increases the pressure on Christopher Luxon and his team as the parties head into another major leaders’ debate and the final weeks of campaigning.
But the poll remains a snapshot rather than an election result. Changes in party support, undecided voters, turnout and the performance of parties in individual electorates could all alter the parliamentary arithmetic before voting closes.
For Māori voters, the contest also extends beyond the nationwide party vote. The seven Māori electorates remain an important part of the overall parliamentary picture, with Te Pāti Māori, Labour, the Greens and other candidates competing for support across the motu.
The latest numbers reinforce just how fluid Election 2026 has become, with neither major bloc able to take the outcome for granted and the smaller parties potentially holding considerable influence over what happens after election night.
Note: RNZ blocked automated access to the linked article when I checked it, so I have deliberately not reproduced individual polling percentages or seat projections that I could not independently verify from the source.
#Election2026 #RNZPoll #ReidResearch #National #Labour #GreenParty #TePatiMaori #TheOpportunityParty #NZPolitics #MaoriPolitics #MaoriVote #ElectionPoll #Aotearoa #MaoriNews #WaateaNews
