With Election 2026 entering its final weeks, the contest for Māori support is becoming an increasingly important part of the wider campaign, as Labour, Te Pāti Māori and the Greens compete for both electorate and party votes.
Former Minister and former Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell joined Waatea to take a wider look at the campaign and the issues shaping Māori voting decisions — from the cost of living, housing and hauora to employment, Te Tiriti and Māori political representation.
Recent polling highlights just how fluid that landscape has become. A Whakaata Māori-Curia poll of 1,000 Māori voters conducted between 29 August and 10 September had Labour leading the overall Māori party vote on 31 percent, followed by Te Pāti Māori on 18 percent and the Greens on 17 percent. Among Māori-roll respondents, however, Te Pāti Māori led on 29 percent, Labour recorded 27 percent and the Greens 16 percent.
There are also signs of significant movement compared with the last election. Among decided Māori-roll voters in that poll, Labour recorded 28 percent compared with 44 percent at the 2023 election, while Green support increased from 9 percent to 17 percent.
A more recent Hauraki-Waikato electorate poll illustrates the contest at a local level. Te Pāti Māori recorded 22 percent of the party vote, Labour 21 percent and the Greens 16 percent, although 15 percent remained undecided and the poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
But the numbers are only part of the story. Cost of living remains a major concern, while Te Tiriti, poverty, housing and hauora are also prominent among Māori voters surveyed.
For Flavell, who has experienced election campaigns from inside both government and kaupapa Māori politics, the bigger question is how Māori political representation is changing and what Labour must demonstrate if it wants to maintain the confidence of Māori voters in an increasingly competitive political environment.
With weeks remaining until polling day, the Māori vote is far from a single political bloc — and the contest over who best represents the aspirations and everyday concerns of whānau is firmly underway.
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