Treasury’s pre-election opening of the books shows an improving outlook for Government finances, but the picture around the kitchen table remains less convincing.
The Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update, or PREFU, forecasts the Government’s OBEGALx deficit will fall to $6.8 billion in 2026/27, before narrowing to $800 million the following year and moving to a $4 billion surplus in 2028/29.
Treasury says stronger tax revenue is a major contributor to the improvement, with higher prices lifting revenue through nominal incomes, spending and profits. The Government’s forecast bond programme has also been reduced by $15 billion compared with the May Budget forecasts.
But improving Crown accounts do not necessarily mean households are experiencing the same recovery. Treasury acknowledges higher inflation can place additional pressure on costs, while the Waatea analysis has raised questions about when stronger headline economic numbers will translate into improvements for whānau.
Dale Husband speaks with Matthew Tukaki about the PREFU, what sits behind the numbers, and what the economic outlook could mean for whānau, jobs, the cost of living and the wider Māori economy. Listen to Matthew speaking with economist Matt Roskruge.
#PREFU2026 #MatthewTukaki #DaleHusband #NZEconomy #MāoriEconomy #Whānau #CostOfLiving #Inflation #Treasury #GovernmentDebt #Jobs #PakihiMāori #Election2026 #Aotearoa #WaateaNews #RadioWaatea
