Climate change is shaping up as another major Election 2026 dividing line, with political parties setting out sharply different positions on the Paris Agreement, the Emissions Trading Scheme, electricity reform and the future of the independent Climate Change Commission.
Political leaders laid out their competing approaches at the 18th Climate Change and Business Conference in Auckland, jointly hosted by the Environmental Defence Society, Sustainable Business Council and Climate Leaders Coalition.
While there was common ground around energy security, renewable generation and the need to prepare New Zealand for the impacts of climate change, significant differences emerged over how far and how fast Aotearoa should move to reduce emissions.
LABOUR PROMISES IMMEDIATE ETS REVIEW
Labour leader Chris Hipkins committed his party to keeping New Zealand in the Paris Agreement and promised an immediate review of the Emissions Trading Scheme if Labour forms the next Government.
That review would examine forestry offsets, whole-farm conversions and whether the ETS is providing sufficient incentives for businesses to actually reduce emissions rather than relying heavily on forestry to offset them.
Labour is also proposing a comprehensive national energy strategy and electricity market reform, while opposing the development of an LNG import terminal.
The forestry question could have particular significance for Māori landowners, iwi investment entities and rural communities where forestry, carbon farming and land-use decisions have become increasingly intertwined with regional economic development.
NATIONAL BACKS PARIS AND ETS STABILITY
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts made clear National intends to remain in the Paris Agreement.
National also continues to support the independent advisory role of the Climate Change Commission, while emphasising stability within the ETS rather than major disruption to the existing system.
Watts put technology at the centre of reducing agricultural methane emissions and backed further electrification of the economy.
National also remains supportive of a proposed LNG facility, viewing it as insurance against electricity shortages during dry years when hydro generation comes under pressure.
That puts Labour and National on opposite sides of another emerging energy debate: whether importing LNG strengthens New Zealand’s energy security or risks increasing reliance on fossil fuels.
GREENS WANT MORE EMISSIONS CUT AT HOME
Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick pushed for greater emphasis on reducing emissions within New Zealand rather than relying heavily on offsets.
The Greens also support developing an energy strategy and strengthening the independence of the Climate Change Commission.
The party’s position reflects a broader argument over whether New Zealand’s climate policy should primarily concentrate on meeting emissions targets at the lowest economic cost or place greater weight on transforming transport, energy, agriculture and industry domestically.
ACT QUESTIONS PARIS AND WOULD ABOLISH CLIMATE COMMISSION
ACT leader David Seymour offered one of the clearest alternatives.
ACT supports the ETS as an economically efficient mechanism for managing emissions but is questioning New Zealand’s obligations under the Paris Agreement.
The party would also abolish the Climate Change Commission, transferring its statutory functions back to the responsible government ministry.
That would represent a significant change to New Zealand’s climate governance framework, removing the independent body currently responsible for providing expert advice and monitoring progress against climate targets.
NZ FIRST WANTS OUT OF PARIS
New Zealand First is going further.
Dr David Wilson, representing NZ First at the conference, called for New Zealand to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, review the Climate Change Commission and undertake structural reform of the electricity market.
That means voters are now being presented with fundamentally different choices over New Zealand’s international climate commitments.
Labour, National and the Greens support remaining in Paris, ACT is questioning the country’s obligations, while New Zealand First is advocating withdrawal.
OPPORTUNITY PARTY PUTS $1 BILLION ON THE TABLE
The Opportunity Party used the conference to announce a proposed $1 billion Industry Energy Resilience Fund.
Party representative Qiulae Wong said the fund would be financed through a green bond backed by future ETS auction revenue.
The party is also calling for greater cross-party agreement on both reducing emissions and adapting to climate change.
ENERGY SECURITY THE COMMON GROUND
Despite the political divisions, Environmental Defence Society chief executive and conference moderator Gary Taylor identified several areas where parties were closer together.
Energy security, increasing renewable generation and taking practical action to prepare communities for climate change all attracted significant support.
There was also considerable, although not universal, political support for retaining an independent Climate Change Commission, remaining in the Paris Agreement and maintaining a credible ETS.
But agreement on the broad problem does not mean agreement on the solution.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MĀORI?
For Māori, the debate extends well beyond carbon accounting.
Climate policy increasingly intersects with whenua Māori, forestry, farming, renewable energy, housing, coastal communities, marae infrastructure and Māori economic development.
Changes to forestry offsets can affect land-use economics. Electricity reform can affect household power bills and investment opportunities. Climate adaptation will determine how vulnerable coastal and rural communities prepare for flooding, erosion, storms and rising seas.
And decisions made now about renewable generation, transmission infrastructure and new energy developments could shape investment opportunities on Māori land for decades.
That makes the climate debate an economic and social question as much as an environmental one.
ELECTION 2026: THE CLIMATE CHOICE GETS CLEARER
The conference has provided voters with one of the clearest snapshots yet of the climate choices emerging ahead of Election 2026.
There is agreement that New Zealand needs reliable energy and greater resilience.
But underneath that agreement are vastly different visions.
Should New Zealand remain committed to Paris? Should the Climate Change Commission survive? Does the ETS need major reform? Should LNG become part of our energy security system? And how much of our emissions reduction should happen here at home?
For Māori communities, there is another question that will become increasingly important as the campaign unfolds:
Where does tangata whenua sit in the transition — as communities carrying the cost, or as owners, investors and decision-makers helping build the next generation of Aotearoa’s economy?
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