LEFT BEHIND: MĀORI UNEMPLOYMENT ABOVE 10% AS ELECTION ECONOMY TAKES CENTRE STAGE

Māori, rangatahi and regional communities are carrying a disproportionate share of Aotearoa’s economic downturn, with Māori unemployment remaining above 10 percent as the country heads towards Election 2026.

Professor Matt Roskruge (Te Ātiawa, Ngāti Tama), Associate Dean Māori and Professor of Economics at Massey University, says the headline economic numbers do not tell the full story of who is paying the greatest price for weaker economic conditions.

For Māori households, the impact is being felt through job losses, fewer employment opportunities, reduced household income and increasing pressure on whānau already dealing with high housing, food and everyday living costs.

MĀORI BEARING A HEAVIER BURDEN

The national unemployment rate has risen substantially from the historic lows recorded earlier in the decade, but the impact has not been evenly distributed.

Māori unemployment has remained above 10 percent, around twice the overall national rate, highlighting a persistent gap in labour-market outcomes.

For Roskruge, that difference matters because national averages can disguise considerably worse conditions within individual communities.

The consequences also extend beyond those officially classified as unemployed. People wanting more hours, those who have stopped looking for work and rangatahi struggling to secure their first job can all experience the effects of a weak labour market.

For communities with younger populations and greater exposure to industries sensitive to economic downturns, the effects can accumulate quickly.

RANGATAHI RISK LOSING THEIR FIRST STEP ON THE LADDER

Rangatahi are particularly vulnerable when businesses stop hiring.

When employers become cautious, entry-level jobs are often among the first opportunities to disappear, leaving young people competing against more experienced workers for fewer vacancies.

That creates a risk extending well beyond today’s unemployment figures.

Periods spent outside employment, education or training can affect future earnings, skills development and career progression.

For rangatahi Māori, the challenge is intensified when employment opportunities are limited within their own rohe, potentially forcing young people to move away from whānau to find work.

The longer the downturn continues, the greater the danger that what begins as a temporary economic slowdown becomes a longer-term problem for a generation entering the workforce.

REGIONS FEELING THE SQUEEZE

Roskruge says geography is another important part of the economic picture.

Regional communities can be particularly exposed when construction slows, businesses reduce investment or industries such as forestry, manufacturing and other primary-sector activities contract.

Unlike larger cities, smaller centres may have fewer alternative employers when a significant business closes, restructures or reduces its workforce.

One lost job can also have a wider economic effect.

Less household income means less spending at local shops, cafés, tradespeople and other businesses, which can create further pressure on employment throughout the community.

For Māori, who have significant populations throughout provincial and regional Aotearoa, those pressures can be particularly pronounced.

A CONTRAST WITH THE GROWING MĀORI ECONOMY

The unemployment figures also sit alongside another striking economic story.

Recent Stats NZ figures show Māori authorities held $32.6 billion in assets in 2025, while Māori enterprises captured in the data supported around 55,700 jobs.

Māori authorities generated $5.7 billion in income and recorded a pre-tax surplus of $781 million, while Māori enterprises represented in the statistics exported almost $1.45 billion in goods.

That creates one of the central challenges facing Māori economic policy.

The collective Māori asset base is growing and Māori businesses are becoming increasingly important employers and exporters, yet large numbers of Māori households remain exposed to unemployment and economic hardship.

The challenge is turning growing Māori economic strength into more jobs, higher wages, skills, apprenticeships and opportunities for whānau.

ELECTION 2026: WHERE ARE THE JOBS?

With the general election approaching, employment is likely to become one of the major tests of competing economic policies.

Political parties will be challenged to explain not simply how they intend to grow GDP, but where new jobs will come from, which regions will benefit and how Māori and rangatahi will participate in that growth.

Infrastructure investment, housing construction, regional development, education, apprenticeships, Māori enterprise, access to capital and support for small businesses will all form part of that debate.

There is also a question of timing.

Economic recoveries do not necessarily reach every community simultaneously. National indicators can begin improving while households and regions experiencing the deepest downturn continue struggling.

For Māori whānau, therefore, an eventual improvement in national economic statistics will mean little if unemployment remains stubbornly high.

THE NUMBERS REPRESENT WHĀNAU

Behind an unemployment rate are thousands of individual stories.

It can mean a parent losing an income, a graduate unable to find their first job, a forestry worker facing redundancy, a small business losing customers or a rangatahi wondering whether there is a future for them in their hometown.

That is why Roskruge’s warning matters heading into Election 2026.

The economic debate cannot be judged solely by whether the national economy eventually returns to growth.

The bigger test will be who participates in that recovery.

If Māori unemployment remains above 10 percent while the rest of the economy begins moving forward, then for thousands of whānau the downturn will not be over.

And as November approaches, voters will increasingly be asking political parties one very straightforward question:

Where are the jobs — and when will Māori whānau feel the recovery too?

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