Pacific communities already struggling with a prolonged fuel crisis are being warned to prepare for another major threat, with a rapidly strengthening El Niño expected to bring potentially severe drought to some islands, heavier rainfall to others and growing pressure on drinking water, food supplies and children’s health.
ChildFund New Zealand says the combination of fuel shortages, rising costs and extreme climate conditions risks becoming a polycrisis for some of Aotearoa’s closest Pacific neighbours.
And the latest climate outlook leaves little uncertainty about what is coming.
Earth Sciences New Zealand, formerly NIWA, says there is a 100 percent chance El Niño will continue through the remainder of 2026, with the current event having the potential to become one of the strongest on record.
ChildFund New Zealand chief executive Josie Pagani says preparations need to begin now, particularly around protecting access to safe drinking water.
One El Niño — very different consequences
El Niño does not affect every Pacific island in the same way.
The latest Island Climate Update forecasts above or well-above-normal rainfall across parts of eastern Micronesia and islands near the equator, including areas around the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Kiribati, Tuvalu and Tokelau.
At the same time, a large arc stretching from western Micronesia and Papua New Guinea towards the Tuamotu Archipelago is expected to experience much drier conditions, with many locations facing a high chance of being extremely dry between September and November.
That creates two very different threats.
Too little rain can empty tanks, reduce groundwater supplies and destroy crops.
Too much rain can overwhelm sanitation systems, contaminate shallow wells and increase the spread of waterborne disease.
For children, either extreme can quickly become a health emergency.
Water could become the frontline
ChildFund says access to safe drinking water is among its greatest concerns.
Many small Pacific communities have limited freshwater reserves and rely heavily on rainwater harvesting, shallow groundwater lenses or energy-dependent pumping and treatment systems.
Drought can reduce those supplies.
Flooding can contaminate them.
And rising fuel costs can make pumping, treating, maintaining and transporting water more expensive.
ChildFund has previously warned that water infrastructure across vulnerable communities can be highly dependent on diesel-powered pumps or electricity whose cost is linked to international energy prices.
When fuel prices rise, pumps can run for fewer hours, maintenance becomes more expensive and replacement parts become harder to transport.
El Niño therefore arrives at a particularly difficult time.
Fuel crisis already spreading into essential services
ChildFund warned last month that the Pacific’s fuel shock was developing into a wider water, food and health crisis.
The organisation says Pacific economies can experience fuel shocks later than larger economies and endure their consequences for longer because of isolation, limited storage and dependence on imported energy and goods.
Kiribati is among the countries ChildFund considers particularly exposed.
Its outer islands can have limited transport connections and few alternatives when shipping or fuel supplies are disrupted.
ChildFund is already working on measures including greater water capture and storage, portable desalination, training local technicians and supporting food production designed for difficult saline and waterlogged conditions.
Kiribati has little room for another shock
The warning is particularly serious for Kiribati because water quality problems already exist before El Niño reaches its peak.
ChildFund says household testing undertaken in December 2021 found 73 percent of households tested had unsafe or likely unsafe drinking water because of bacterial contamination.
That historical finding illustrates the vulnerability of water supplies even without an additional climate shock.
ChildFund also says nearly 80 percent of Kiribati’s population was affected by drought during the previous La Niña national emergency four years ago.
For communities beginning from such a vulnerable position, another prolonged period of climate extremes can rapidly become more than a weather problem.
It becomes a health, nutrition and development problem.
Children pay first when systems fail
Pagani says children are often among the first to suffer when water becomes unsafe or food becomes scarce.
Unsafe drinking water can contribute to gastrointestinal illness and other disease.
Reduced local food production can increase dependence on imported products at precisely the time transport and fuel costs are rising.
Families facing higher food, electricity and transport costs also have less money available for healthcare and education.
The consequences can reinforce one another.
A fuel shortage increases the cost of transporting food.
Drought reduces locally grown food.
Water shortages increase health risks.
And getting a sick child to a health facility becomes more difficult if transport is unaffordable or fuel unavailable.
That is the polycrisis ChildFund is warning about.
Climate outlook becoming increasingly serious
The scientific indicators behind the current El Niño are striking.
As of August 17, the 30-day NINO3.4 index in the central equatorial Pacific had reached 2.48°C, placing it firmly within strong El Niño territory.
Earth Sciences New Zealand also reported exceptionally warm subsurface water across the eastern equatorial Pacific, with temperature anomalies of 6°C to 8°C widespread and approaching 10°C in some locations.
New Zealand itself is already beginning to experience the influence of El Niño.
The September-to-November outlook favours stronger westerly airflow, shifting towards more southwesterly conditions from October, while some parts of the country are expected to experience near-normal or below-normal rainfall.
But across Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, the consequences can be considerably more severe because small island states often have fewer alternative water sources and less infrastructure redundancy.
Preparing before the tanks run dry
ChildFund says the emphasis now needs to be on preparation rather than waiting for communities to reach crisis point.
Its work with local Pacific partners includes rainwater collection, water storage, water testing, solar-powered purification systems, hygiene education and community food gardens.
These interventions may appear relatively simple, but they can determine whether a community can continue functioning during prolonged drought, flooding or supply-chain disruption.
Having spare components already on an island matters when shipping becomes unreliable.
Training local technicians matters when outside specialists cannot reach remote communities.
Growing food locally matters when imported food becomes more expensive.
And collecting and safely storing rainwater matters when the next significant rainfall may be weeks away.
A Pacific issue is a New Zealand issue
ChildFund is calling for what it describes as a NZ Inc response, bringing together the New Zealand Government, charities, businesses operating across the Pacific and Pacific governments themselves.
Pagani argues the region is simultaneously confronting fuel insecurity, climate disruption, food pressures and water vulnerability, making isolated responses less effective.
For Aotearoa, the argument carries particular weight.
The Pacific is not some distant humanitarian theatre.
Thousands of New Zealand whānau have whakapapa and family connections throughout Samoa, Tonga, Fiji, Niue, Tokelau, Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Cook Islands and across Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.
What happens across the Pacific affects communities here.
Climate resilience must be built before disaster arrives
The approaching El Niño provides something many natural disasters do not: advance warning.
Scientists know it is underway.
They know it is strengthening.
They know some islands are likely to become substantially wetter and others substantially drier.
What cannot be predicted with the same certainty is precisely which village will run short of water, which crop will fail or which community will experience damaging floods.
That uncertainty is precisely why ChildFund says preparation must happen now.
A water tank installed before drought is resilience.
A purification system operating before contamination is prevention.
A local technician trained before a pump breaks is preparedness.
And locally produced food before shipping is disrupted can become a lifeline.
The Pacific cannot stop El Niño from arriving. But with a 100 percent chance it will persist through the rest of 2026, the region does not have to wait until children are thirsty, food is scarce and communities are in crisis before acting.
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