Auckland businesses are showing signs of shaking off the economic and geopolitical shock that battered confidence earlier this year, with new polling showing a sharp rebound in expectations, investment intentions and plans to hire workers.
The Auckland Business Chamber’s August 2026 Business Confidence Survey shows negative business sentiment has fallen substantially in just three months, while the number of firms expecting the economy to deteriorate has more than halved.
Chamber Chief Executive Simon Bridges says the results suggest Auckland businesses are moving beyond the uncertainty generated by the Iran conflict and beginning to think about growth again.
The strongest signal may be employment.
In May, only 36 percent of surveyed businesses intended to hire over the following 12 months.
By August, that had jumped to 50 percent.
For a city and country struggling with elevated unemployment — particularly among Māori and rangatahi — whether those intentions translate into actual jobs will be one of the most important numbers to watch.
Confidence claws back lost ground
The turnaround over the past three months is significant.
In May, 54 percent of Auckland businesses described their overall confidence as negative or very negative.
By August that had fallen to 40 percent.
At the other end of the spectrum, businesses reporting positive or very positive confidence increased from 15 percent to 26 percent.
Expectations about the wider economy have moved even more dramatically.
The proportion expecting the economy to decline over the coming 12 months has dropped from 24 percent to just 10 percent, while those expecting improvement have increased from 34 percent to 43 percent.
Bridges attributes much of the May pessimism to the international shock generated by the Iran conflict, which pushed concerns about energy prices, inflation and geopolitical instability sharply higher.
With some of that uncertainty easing, businesses appear more willing to look forward again.
Businesses preparing to invest
Confidence surveys can sometimes tell us more about how people feel than what they are actually prepared to do.
But the Chamber’s latest numbers suggest the change is beginning to reach business decision-making.
The proportion of firms planning investment during the next year has risen from 50 percent to 59 percent.
Hiring intentions have climbed even faster, jumping 14 percentage points from 36 percent to 50 percent.
Only eight percent now expect to reduce their workforce.
That is potentially significant.
Businesses generally do not employ additional staff unless they expect sufficient demand to justify the additional wage bill.
Likewise, investment in equipment, technology, premises or expansion tends to require some confidence that future economic conditions will support the expenditure.
If those intentions become reality, the confidence rebound could begin flowing into employment and economic activity across Tāmaki Makaurau.
The big question for Māori — where are the jobs?
For Māori, however, improving business confidence needs to translate into something tangible.
The labour market remains difficult, and Māori unemployment remains significantly higher than the national rate.
That makes the Chamber’s 14-point increase in hiring intentions particularly important.
The question is where those jobs will be created, what skills employers will require and whether Māori workers and rangatahi will have access to them.
With political parties heading towards the November election promising different approaches to apprenticeships, skills training, infrastructure and economic development, improving employer confidence potentially creates an opening.
Training programmes only work when businesses are prepared to employ the people coming through them.
If half of Auckland businesses are now considering hiring, connecting those employers with Māori jobseekers, apprentices and training providers could become an important part of turning economic recovery into whānau recovery.
Revenue is moving in the right direction
There are also encouraging signs underneath the headline confidence numbers.
In May, 45 percent of businesses reported performing below expectations.
That has fallen to 37 percent.
The proportion reporting revenue higher than a year earlier has increased from 31 percent to 38 percent.
Looking ahead, 52 percent now expect revenue to increase over the next 12 months, up from 43 percent in May.
That suggests the recovery is not being driven solely by optimism about the future.
Some firms are already seeing improvements in their books.
Cashflow produces the biggest turnaround
One of the most striking changes is occurring in cashflow.
In May, almost half of respondents — 48 percent — reported fewer customers paying their bills on time.
By August that figure had dropped to 29 percent.
That 19-percentage-point improvement is the largest movement recorded across the survey’s key indicators.
For small businesses, this matters enormously.
A profitable business on paper can still struggle if invoices remain unpaid while wages, rent, tax, stock and suppliers have to be paid.
With businesses employing between one and 50 workers making up the majority of survey respondents, improving payment behaviour could provide some much-needed breathing room for Auckland’s SME sector.
It will also be particularly relevant to small Māori businesses, where cashflow and access to working capital can determine whether a growing enterprise can take on another employee or invest in expansion.
Energy pressure eases — but hasn’t disappeared
Energy affordability has also improved since May.
The proportion of businesses describing energy costs as unaffordable has fallen from 55 percent to 48 percent.
But that is still substantially higher than the 40 percent recorded in February.
And businesses are not convinced the pressure is over.
Some 81 percent still expect their costs to increase.
That means the improvement in confidence is occurring despite businesses continuing to anticipate higher operating expenses.
For manufacturers, hospitality operators, retailers, transport companies and energy-intensive businesses, electricity and fuel remain significant components of the cost base.
The Iran conflict demonstrated how quickly an international event can flow through to businesses thousands of kilometres away in Auckland.
The customer is now the biggest worry
Perhaps the clearest warning in the survey is consumer demand.
Consumer confidence and demand is now the number-one concern for 64 percent of businesses, up from 62 percent in May and higher than at any other point this year.
That tells an important story about the recovery.
Businesses may be feeling more optimistic, but many of their customers are still under financial pressure.
Households continue to make decisions around mortgages, rent, groceries, power, transport and other essentials before spending money elsewhere.
For businesses dependent on discretionary spending, a recovery cannot fully take hold until customers feel confident enough to open their wallets again.
That makes the relationship between household finances and business confidence increasingly important.
Inflation fears retreat
Concern about inflation and interest rates has moved in the opposite direction.
In May, 55 percent identified inflationary pressures and interest rates as a major concern.
That has fallen to 46 percent.
International trade and geopolitical risk has also dropped sharply, from 45 percent to 34 percent, as the Iran conflict has receded from the immediate concerns of many businesses.
Productivity and growth concerns, however, have increased from 29 percent to 34 percent, while cashflow and accounts payable and receivable concerns have edged higher from 28 percent to 32 percent.
The picture is therefore improving — but it is far from universally positive.
AI suddenly moving up the worry list
Another issue is emerging quickly.
Concern about artificial intelligence adoption and digital transformation has risen from 13 percent in May to 18 percent in August.
It remains relatively low compared with concerns about consumer demand or inflation.
But the speed of the increase is notable — roughly a one-third rise in three months.
Businesses are increasingly confronting questions about how AI will change productivity, employment, customer service and the skills required from their workforce.
For small businesses without large technology budgets or specialist teams, adapting to that change may prove particularly challenging.
It also reinforces the need for workforce development to increasingly include digital and AI capability alongside traditional trades and professional skills.
A message for whoever wins in November
With the general election approaching, the Chamber’s survey presents political parties with both an opportunity and a warning.
The opportunity is that business confidence appears to be recovering.
Firms are increasingly prepared to invest, hire and plan for growth.
The warning is how quickly that confidence can disappear.
Bridges’ message is that businesses now need stability to build upon the recovery.
For the next Government, that puts economic management, energy security, skills, infrastructure, regulation, international trade and household confidence firmly on the agenda.
The survey was conducted between 17 and 31 August, drawing responses from businesses across Auckland and across major industries and business sizes, with small businesses employing between one and 50 people making up most respondents.
Confidence is back — now it needs to become mahi
For Tāmaki Makaurau, there is plenty in these results to welcome.
Fewer businesses expect economic decline.
More expect their revenue to grow.
More are planning investment.
And significantly more are considering hiring.
But the next stage matters more than the survey itself.
If improving confidence becomes investment, and investment becomes jobs, the recovery will begin reaching households and whānau.
For Māori communities still experiencing unemployment at significantly higher levels than the national population, that is the number that ultimately matters.
Confidence is good. Investment is better. But for thousands of whānau looking for work, the real measure of economic recovery will be whether those hiring intentions finally turn into jobs.
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