The battle over who could form the next Government is intensifying, with Labour leader Chris Hipkins facing questions over Te Pāti Māori, the rapid rise of The Opportunity Party and just how flexible Labour is prepared to be when coalition negotiations begin.
Hipkins joins Waatea as the November 7 election approaches and the political landscape becomes increasingly complicated.
Labour has been positioning itself as a government-in-waiting, campaigning heavily on the cost of living, jobs, healthcare and housing while presenting an experienced front bench headed by Hipkins, Carmel Sepuloni, Barbara Edmonds, Willie Jackson and Ayesha Verrall.
But attention is increasingly shifting from individual party policies to the numbers required to govern.
A major point of tension is Labour’s relationship with Te Pāti Māori.
Hipkins has indicated it is unlikely Te Pāti Māori MPs would hold senior roles in a future Labour-led government, adding another layer to an already complicated relationship between the two parties.
Te Pāti Māori has previously signalled a willingness to find common ground with other parties where kaupapa align, while maintaining its political independence. Co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said earlier this year that parties with significant differences can still work together on areas of agreement.
That leaves Hipkins walking a political tightrope.
Labour is fighting to rebuild its own support among Māori voters and win back Māori electorates, while Te Pāti Māori remains a potential part of the parliamentary arithmetic Labour could need to form a government.
There is also a new factor dramatically changing those calculations — The Opportunity Party.
The latest 1News Verian poll put Opportunity on 9 percent, up three points and potentially giving it nine MPs. Labour was on 30 percent, National 29, the Greens 12, ACT 9, New Zealand First 8 and Te Pāti Māori 1 percent, with the polling model assuming current Māori electorate incumbents retain their seats.
On those numbers, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 59 seats between them and would fall short of a parliamentary majority.
Adding Opportunity would lift that grouping to 68 seats and potentially put the party in a powerful kingmaker position.
That momentum means voters are no longer looking only at the familiar National-ACT-New Zealand First and Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori combinations.
The possibility of another party entering Parliament with a sizeable caucus could reshape negotiations after election night and give Hipkins more options — but potentially create another set of policy compromises.
The stakes are particularly important for Māori voters.
Labour is campaigning to regain ground among Māori after its heavy losses in the Māori electorates in 2023, and Willie Jackson has been given responsibility for Māori-Crown Relations as Labour puts greater emphasis on winning those seats.
Meanwhile, the wider campaign is unfolding against a difficult economic backdrop. Unemployment is at an 11-year high and economic conditions have contributed to political pressure on the Government, while National has also endured renewed leadership turmoil.
For Hipkins, the challenge is now twofold: convince voters Labour has a credible programme for government while also demonstrating what a Labour-led administration could realistically look like.
As the polls tighten and smaller parties become increasingly important, Election 2026 is turning into a game of coalition chess.
And for Māori voters, one of the biggest questions will be not only who wins their vote — but how much influence Māori representatives will have when the next Government is formed.
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