New Zealand First deputy leader Shane Jones has weighed into the growing speculation surrounding National’s leadership, describing the situation as increasingly untidy as coalition politics heats up ahead of Election 2026.
“it all looks very untidy”
Speaking with Radio Waatea, Jones turned his attention to questions surrounding Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the continuing political discussion about National’s leadership.
Jones says the situation does not present a particularly tidy picture for the coalition’s largest party.
His intervention comes at an awkward time for National, with Luxon facing renewed questions about his leadership while trying to keep the Government focused on its economic and election-year programme.
For New Zealand First, however, the turmoil also provides an opportunity to establish some political distance from its coalition partner before voters head to the polls.
Jones is now deputy leader of New Zealand First and remains one of the coalition’s most outspoken ministers, holding the Regional Development, Resources and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios alongside associate responsibilities in finance and energy.
JONES TAKES AIM AT TOP ECONOMICS
Jones also turned his attention to The Opportunities Party and its economic agenda.
In typically colourful fashion, he indicated New Zealand First has not embraced what he regards as TOP’s economic heresy.
“we haven’t sunk our fangs into that economic heresy,”
HIPKINS SHUTS THE DOOR
Meanwhile, Labour leader Chris Hipkins has removed one potential post-election combination from the board by ruling out New Zealand First from any government he leads.
The relationship between Labour and New Zealand First has deteriorated despite the two parties governing together between 2017 and 2020.
The decision significantly narrows the coalition options available after November’s election and makes the performance of smaller parties even more important.
New Zealand First has also previously ruled out working with Labour following the election.
For Jones, Hipkins’ declaration means voters are getting greater clarity about what their party vote could produce.
But it also raises the stakes.
Under MMP, election campaigns are not simply about which party finishes first.
They are about whether the numbers exist to assemble a government once every vote has been counted.
COALITION PARTNERS — AND ELECTION RIVALS
That creates an unusual dynamic for National and New Zealand First.
They sit together around the Cabinet table today.
But come election day, they will also be competing against each other for votes.
Jones has already demonstrated New Zealand First is prepared to publicly disagree with National and Luxon.
Last month Luxon criticised Jones over controversial comments concerning the way politicians receive foreign leaders, while Jones subsequently defended his language and pushed back against the criticism.
Those disagreements illustrate one of the defining features of the current three-party Government.
National, ACT and New Zealand First cooperate to govern, but each needs to maintain a distinct political identity if it wants voters to return it to Parliament.
MMP MATHS GET MESSIER
The result is an increasingly complicated political chessboard.
Labour has closed the door on New Zealand First.
New Zealand First is differentiating itself from National.
Jones is dismissive of TOP’s economic direction.
And National is facing questions about whether Luxon remains the leader best positioned to take the party through the campaign.
For Māori voters, there are additional questions around where New Zealand First positions itself on Te Tiriti, Māori representation and the Māori electorates.
The party is campaigning for a referendum on the future of the Māori seats, adding another major constitutional issue to the election debate.
With less than three months until Election Day, the political relationships determining the next government are beginning to harden.
And Shane Jones appears more than happy to stir the pot.
Because while National and New Zealand First remain coalition partners today, Election 2026 is approaching fast.
When the campaign begins in earnest, friendship around the Cabinet table comes second to winning votes.
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