The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll has delivered another warning sign for the National-led coalition, with Christopher Luxon’s party recording its lowest level of support since taking office and the political landscape becoming increasingly competitive ahead of the 2026 General Election.
The poll shows National continuing to lose ground while Labour has strengthened its position, narrowing the contest to one that could ultimately be decided by the performance of the smaller parties under New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system.
The results suggest the coalition government is facing growing pressure from voters amid ongoing concerns over the cost of living, housing affordability, healthcare, economic performance and public services.
The survey also indicates declining personal support for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, whose leadership ratings have fallen alongside National’s party vote. Polling analysts say leadership perceptions often become increasingly important as election campaigns draw closer, particularly when voters remain undecided.
One of the most significant developments from the latest polling is the continued rise of smaller parties.
The figures suggest The Opportunities Party (TOP) is edging closer to the 5 percent party vote threshold required to enter Parliament without winning an electorate seat. While still below that mark, TOP’s increasing support reflects growing voter interest in alternatives to the traditional political blocs.
Under MMP, coalition arithmetic remains crucial.
Even relatively small shifts in party support can dramatically alter the composition of Parliament, meaning parties such as ACT, New Zealand First, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and potentially TOP could all play influential roles in determining who forms the next government.
For National, the poll presents another challenge as it seeks to rebuild momentum before voters head to the polls in November.
The Government has continued promoting its agenda around economic growth, infrastructure investment, law and order, regulatory reform and public sector efficiency. Ministers argue those policies will deliver stronger long-term outcomes despite difficult global economic conditions.
However, opposition parties say voters remain unconvinced that enough progress has been made on issues affecting everyday New Zealanders, including inflation, healthcare access, housing affordability and employment.
The latest survey also reflects a broader trend seen across several recent polls, with National’s support easing while Labour and some smaller parties have gained ground. Although individual polls represent only a snapshot in time, the consistency across multiple surveys is likely to attract close attention from political strategists.
For Māori voters, the election campaign is expected to focus heavily on issues including Te Tiriti o Waitangi, health equity, housing, employment, education, freshwater, regional development and constitutional relationships.
Political analysts believe the Māori electorates could again prove influential, particularly if the overall election result remains close.
With several months remaining before polling day, parties will continue refining their campaigns and policy platforms in an effort to win undecided voters.
History has shown that election campaigns can significantly reshape public opinion, particularly as leaders debate policy and voters begin comparing competing visions for the country’s future.
For now, the latest RNZ poll suggests the race for Government remains wide open.
As New Zealand moves closer to the election, every percentage point—and every potential coalition partner—could prove decisive in determining who occupies the Beehive after November.
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