There are two great survivors of New Zealand politics: Winston Peters and Māori.
Te Pāti Māori falls firmly into the latter category.
For almost two decades political commentators, opponents and sometimes even supporters have predicted the party’s demise. They have declared it finished, irrelevant, divided, too radical, too moderate, too focused on identity politics, not focused enough on bread-and-butter issues and, on more than one occasion, politically dead.
Yet here we are.
Again.
The latest round of speculation centred on Hauraki-Waikato MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke and whether she would remain with the party amid discussions surrounding alternative Māori political movements. Her decision to stay with Te Pāti Māori has effectively drawn a line under that particular debate and returned the focus to where it was always likely to end up – the Government.
Of course, her announcement also reminded us of something else.
Everybody has an opinion.
Many people had an opinion on whether Hana-Rāwhiti should stay or go. Many had opinions on what Te Pāti Māori should or should not do. Others had opinions on who should lead, who should leave, and what strategy should be adopted heading into the election.
That’s politics.
Everyone has an opinion about something, if not everything.
For example, I have always held the view that you should never write Winston Peters off.
Time and again political commentators have prepared his political obituary only to watch him return from the dead and prove them wrong.
The same logic applies to Te Pāti Māori.
The road to perdition is littered with people who confuse their opinions with political reality.
Polling currently suggests Te Pāti Māori remains below the five percent threshold. Yet polling also suggests the party has established a relatively stable position above the three percent mark nationally.
For many parties, that would still be cause for concern.
For Te Pāti Māori, history suggests it is something else entirely.
The party has never relied solely on conventional political mathematics.
Its strength has always been built differently.
Unlike many political parties, Te Pāti Māori’s support base is not simply ideological. It is cultural, generational and increasingly identity-based.
It exists because a significant number of Māori voters continue to believe there is value in having a political movement whose primary focus is Māori aspirations, Māori rights and Māori representation.
Whether people agree with the party or not is almost beside the point.
The demand that created Te Pāti Māori has not disappeared.
If anything, it has become more pronounced.
The political environment has changed significantly since the party’s formation in 2004. Debates over Te Tiriti o Waitangi, co-governance, Māori wards, te reo Māori and constitutional arrangements have become central political issues rather than niche discussions.
The consequence has been a political polarisation that has often benefited Te Pāti Māori.
Its supporters see the party as a necessary response to political and social pressures facing Māori communities.
Its critics often underestimate how strongly that sentiment resonates.
That does not mean Te Pāti Māori is invincible.
Far from it.
The party faces genuine challenges.
Winning and retaining electorate seats remains critical.
Maintaining discipline and cohesion will be important.
Expanding support beyond its traditional base remains a long-term challenge.
And like every political party, it will eventually confront questions about succession, leadership and strategy.
Yet none of those challenges are new.
Indeed, they have accompanied Te Pāti Māori throughout most of its existence.
What is remarkable is not that those challenges continue to exist.
What is remarkable is that the party continues to survive them.
Again and again.
That resilience says something important.
Political parties do not endure for twenty years simply because of charismatic leaders or favourable circumstances.
They endure because they represent something larger than themselves.
For Te Pāti Māori, that larger force remains the enduring Māori desire for self-determination, political influence and independent representation.
The party’s fortunes will rise and fall.
Its polling numbers will fluctuate.
Commentators will continue to predict its success or demise depending on the latest headlines.
That is the nature of politics.
But history offers a simple lesson.
Before declaring Te Pāti Māori finished, remember how many times that prediction has already been made.
And remember how often it has been wrong.
After all, there are two great survivors of New Zealand politics.
Winston Peters is one.
Māori are the other.
And neither should ever be underestimated.
Disclaimer: This article is an opinion piece and reflects the personal views of the author. The opinions expressed do not necessarily represent the views of Radio Waatea, its management, staff, board, sponsors, advertisers or affiliated organisations. Readers are encouraged to consider a range of perspectives when forming their own views on political and public affairs matters.
