A leading Māori business advisor says the Government’s upcoming Budget will likely focus heavily on fiscal restraint and economic stability but warns long-term resilience for Aotearoa will depend on whether investment reaches communities, innovation, and future-focused development.
Te Aho Pihama, Director of ROA Consulting and a kaupapa Māori–grounded business leader, says current economic pressures mean the Government is expected to prioritise controlling debt, managing inflation, and restoring business confidence.
However, Pihama says resilience cannot be measured purely through short-term savings or balance sheet discipline, arguing sustainable growth must include stronger investment in people, productivity, housing, education, and Māori enterprise.
From a Māori economic perspective, Pihama says Budget decisions will be closely watched for signals around whether Māori are seen as active economic partners or simply treated as stakeholders on the sidelines.
Māori businesses and iwi entities now represent a rapidly growing part of the national economy, with the Māori economy estimated to be worth more than $126 billion as of 2023 and expanding across sectors including primary industries, technology, infrastructure, tourism, and investment.
Pihama says targeted investment into Māori capability, skills, procurement pathways, and capital access could strengthen economic participation while also delivering intergenerational benefits for whānau and communities.
At the same time, concerns remain around whether Budget restraint could reduce funding in areas that disproportionately affect Māori, including health, housing, education, and community development.
Pihama says kaupapa Māori approaches to economic development place strong emphasis on long-term well-being rather than short-term political cycles, with decisions measured across generations rather than annual returns.
Discussions around the future of Kiwibank and proposals involving BNZ have also drawn attention ahead of the Budget.
NZ First has floated ideas around strengthening locally-owned banking capability, including potential structural changes aimed at increasing competition in the banking sector.
Pihama says stronger local banking competition could create opportunities for Māori economic development if it improves access to capital, lending flexibility, and investment pathways for Māori businesses and whenua-based enterprises.
New Zealand’s banking sector remains heavily dominated by Australian-owned banks, with ongoing criticism around profit levels, limited competition, and barriers facing smaller businesses and community-led development projects.
Pihama says any meaningful reform would need to move beyond political slogans and deliver practical outcomes that improve financial inclusion and support long-term local investment.
Looking ahead to Budget announcements, Pihama says the strongest signals would include investment in Māori innovation, rangatahi development, infrastructure, digital capability, and sustainable economic transformation.
He says kaupapa Māori values-based leadership offers an opportunity to rethink how economic success is measured, placing greater focus on well-being, collective prosperity, environmental stewardship, and intergenerational outcomes.
Pihama says meaningful partnerships between Government, iwi, Māori business leaders, and communities will be critical if the Budget is to deliver outcomes that genuinely strengthen both the wider economy and Māori futures.
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