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Meka Whaitiri’s grip on Ikaroa-Rawhiti looks shaky without the Labour machine behind her, with Labour’s candidate Cushla Tangaere-Manuel six points ahead in a Whakaata Māori-Curia Research poll.
Almost a third of those polled were undecided, but those tend to break in the same proportion as committed voters.
Ms Whaitiri switched to Te Pāti Māori in May, giving up her place in Cabinet including as Minister for East Coast Cyclone Recovery.
She drew 25 percent support with Ms Tangaere-Manuel at 33 percent.
Labour is still the preferred party at 33 percent, with Te Pāti Māori on 24 percent driven by strong support from younger voters.
The poll was taken on Tuesday of 500 registered voters by landline, mobile and online with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent.
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