Election 2026: Labour Promises Grassroots Growth as IMF Forecasts Recovery – But Will Māori Whānau Share the Wealth?

A political battle over the future of Aotearoa’s economy is intensifying, with Labour promoting a grassroots approach to economic development while the National-led Government points to an improving international economic outlook. But Māori economic leaders are challenging both sides to answer a fundamental question: who actually benefits when the economy grows? With New Zealand heading…


A political battle over the future of Aotearoa’s economy is intensifying, with Labour promoting a grassroots approach to economic development while the National-led Government points to an improving international economic outlook. But Māori economic leaders are challenging both sides to answer a fundamental question: who actually benefits when the economy grows?

With New Zealand heading towards the November 7 general election, the economy has emerged as one of the defining battlegrounds, as political parties compete to convince voters they have the answers to sluggish growth, rising living costs, business uncertainty and declining household confidence.

Labour has outlined its ambition to grow the economy from the grassroots up, placing greater emphasis on local communities, businesses and opportunities to build prosperity beyond traditional centres of economic power.

The approach contrasts with the Government’s emphasis on fiscal discipline, private investment and economic recovery, with National highlighting new International Monetary Fund forecasts suggesting New Zealand is positioned to outperform other advanced economies.

However, while the political debate centres on growth forecasts, investment and economic management, Māori business leaders and academics are asking whether either approach will deliver meaningful improvements in employment, household incomes, housing affordability and long-term economic independence.

Labour Pitches Growth From the Ground Up

Labour is positioning its economic approach around the principle that sustainable growth must reach businesses, workers and communities rather than being measured solely through national economic statistics.

The party’s grassroots growth message comes as many households continue to struggle with the cost of groceries, housing, electricity and transport.

For regional communities, the challenge is particularly significant, with access to investment, infrastructure, skilled workers and business opportunities often determining whether local economies can grow.

The political question is whether Labour’s proposed approach can translate into measurable improvements in productivity, higher wages and stronger regional employment.

For Māori communities, there is also the question of how government economic policies can better support Māori-owned businesses, iwi investment, papakāinga development and employment pathways for rangatahi.

National Points to IMF Forecasts

The National-led Government is presenting the International Monetary Fund’s latest economic outlook as evidence that New Zealand’s recovery is gaining momentum.

The IMF forecasts suggest New Zealand’s economic growth prospects compare favourably with those of other advanced economies, providing the Government with a positive economic message ahead of the election.

However, forecasts are not guarantees, and stronger national growth does not automatically mean households will experience immediate financial relief.

Economic recovery can take time to flow through to wages, employment, business investment and consumer spending.

For voters, the more immediate measures of economic success may be whether they can afford their weekly groceries, pay their mortgage or rent, find secure employment and put money aside for the future.

That distinction between economic growth on paper and prosperity in people’s everyday lives is becoming increasingly important in the election campaign.

Māori Economy Offers a Different Perspective

While politicians debate competing economic strategies, leading Māori business figures are increasingly arguing that the Māori economy must take greater responsibility for shaping its own future.

Prominent Māori business leader Traci Houpapa has challenged Māori enterprises to look beyond government assistance and consider how collective investment, workforce development and stronger commercial partnerships can drive future prosperity.

Speaking in the context of Radio Waatea’s coverage of the Māori economy, Houpapa has highlighted the importance of investing in rangatahi, strengthening skills and creating opportunities that allow Māori workers to build successful careers in Aotearoa rather than being forced to look overseas.

The Māori economy spans agriculture, forestry, fisheries, tourism, construction, technology and financial investment, providing a significant foundation for employment and intergenerational wealth creation.

However, access to capital, infrastructure, skilled workers and competitive wages remain barriers to further growth.

The challenge is ensuring Māori businesses can leverage their collective economic strength while maintaining control over investment decisions and delivering tangible benefits for whānau, hapū and iwi.

Professor Jason Mika: Growth for Whom?

Māori business and economics academic Professor Jason Mika is raising another fundamental challenge to the political debate: economic growth must be measured by more than gross domestic product, business profits and government balance sheets.

His discussion with Radio Waatea examines whether traditional economic models adequately account for inequality, household wellbeing and the distribution of wealth.

Professor Mika’s work highlights the potential for Māori economic values, including manaakitanga, whanaungatanga, kaitiakitanga and rangatiratanga, to inform a different approach to development.

Rather than focusing exclusively on financial returns, Māori economic models can also consider collective wellbeing, environmental stewardship, cultural responsibilities and the opportunities passed to future generations.

That raises important questions about whether government investment in housing, healthcare, education and skills should be viewed not simply as expenditure but as an investment in the country’s long-term economic capacity.

Small Businesses and Apprenticeships in Labour’s Plan

Labour’s newly announced economic package includes proposals to redirect up to $50 million annually into the Elevate investment programme, require large businesses to pay smaller suppliers within 15 days, and allow immediate deductions for qualifying tools and equipment costing up to $10,000.

The party also wants to increase the GST registration threshold to $80,000, improve small businesses’ access to government contracts and expand support for 30,000 apprentices.

Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds says the proposals are designed to support small businesses, create employment and encourage investment in New Zealand enterprises.

Labour is also proposing a New Zealand Future Fund to invest in domestic businesses and infrastructure, alongside a targeted capital gains tax on investment and commercial property to fund healthcare.

The party says its fiscal plan would return the Government’s books to surplus in 2028/29.

For Māori-owned enterprises, measures targeting procurement, apprenticeships and access to capital could create opportunities, although their effectiveness would depend on implementation and whether Māori businesses could access the support.

Election 2026: The Real Economic Test

With just weeks until voters head to the polls, National and Labour are presenting competing visions of economic management.

The Government is relying on signs of economic recovery and the prospect of stronger growth to demonstrate that its policies are working.

Labour is arguing that recovery must be driven through investment in jobs, small businesses, infrastructure and essential public services.

But the Māori economic perspective adds another dimension to the debate.

The success of the next government may ultimately be judged not only by whether the economy grows, but by whether Māori unemployment falls, household incomes improve, rangatahi can access meaningful careers, and whānau have greater opportunities to own homes, establish businesses and build wealth.

For Māori enterprise, there is also a growing argument that economic independence cannot depend entirely on which political party occupies the Treasury benches.

As Houpapa’s focus on Māori-led investment and Mika’s examination of economic inequality demonstrate, the debate is about more than choosing between competing political promises.

It is about determining who controls economic opportunity, who benefits from growth and what kind of prosperity Aotearoa wants to create.

The challenge for whichever government wins on November 7 is clear: growing the economy is one thing. Ensuring that growth reaches whānau, communities and future generations is another.

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