WINSTON’S PACIFIC PITCH: NZ FIRST SURGES AS PETERS RETURNS HOME WITH REGION IN SHARPER FOCUS
Foreign Minister and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is returning from the Pacific Islands Forum with two political contests increasingly converging — New Zealand’s battle for influence across the Pacific and NZ First’s battle for votes at home. Peters has used his latest Pacific diplomacy to reinforce the argument that New Zealand cannot afford…
Foreign Minister and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is returning from the Pacific Islands Forum with two political contests increasingly converging — New Zealand’s battle for influence across the Pacific and NZ First’s battle for votes at home.
Peters has used his latest Pacific diplomacy to reinforce the argument that New Zealand cannot afford to retreat from its neighbourhood as strategic competition, climate change, development pressures and growing infrastructure needs reshape the region.
At the same time, NZ First heads towards the 7 November election from a significantly stronger position than the 6.1 percent of the party vote it secured in 2023.
The latest September Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll has NZ First at 8.4 percent, while an August RNZ-Reid Research poll put the party as high as 11.9 percent. A current rolling polling tracker has the party averaging close to 10 percent.
For Peters, the international and domestic political messages are becoming increasingly intertwined.
THE PACIFIC NEEDS MORE
One of the central questions confronting New Zealand is how it responds to growing development needs across the Pacific while other major powers expand their own diplomatic, economic and security presence.
Peters has signalled that the scale of assistance required across the region is increasing and that New Zealand will need to think bigger about how it supports its Pacific partners.
The challenge ranges from climate resilience and infrastructure to health, education, economic development and disaster preparedness.
For Pacific Island countries facing rising seas, increasingly severe weather events and infrastructure deficits, the question is not simply who attends regional meetings.
It is who is prepared to invest for the long term.
That matters to New Zealand because the Pacific is not some distant foreign-policy theatre. It is Aotearoa’s immediate neighbourhood, connected through whakapapa, migration, trade, security and generations of whānau relationships.
A REGION WITH MORE PLAYERS
New Zealand and Australia have historically been major development and security partners across the Pacific, but the geopolitical environment has changed.
China has expanded its economic and diplomatic relationships throughout the region, while the United States and other partners have renewed their Pacific engagement.
That competition creates opportunities for Pacific governments but also increases pressure on Wellington to demonstrate that its relationships are based on more than strategic anxiety about other countries.
Peters has repeatedly emphasised New Zealand’s long-standing connections with Pacific nations and the importance of listening to the priorities identified by Pacific governments themselves.
The bigger challenge is whether New Zealand has the financial capacity to match those ambitions.
FOREIGN POLICY MEETS THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN
Peters returns to a domestic political environment that looks considerably better for NZ First than it did at the beginning of the parliamentary term.
In July, the party launched its 2026 campaign after an RNZ-Reid Research poll had put it at 11.5 percent, its strongest result in that survey for almost a decade.
Results since then have moved around considerably.
August polls put NZ First anywhere between 7.5 percent and 13 percent, depending on the pollster, while the latest September Curia result has it at 8.4 percent.
That volatility is important.
It would be premature to assume NZ First is guaranteed a double-digit election result. But the broader picture shows a party comfortably above the five-percent threshold across the major recent polls and potentially holding substantial leverage in the formation of the next government.
OLDER VOTERS REMAIN A POWERFUL BASE
Age remains an important part of the NZ First political equation.
Polling has continued to show the governing coalition performing particularly strongly among older voters, with NZ First support especially pronounced among older men.
A Roy Morgan demographic breakdown earlier this year showed 14 percent support for NZ First among men aged 50 and over, compared with considerably lower support among younger groups.
That constituency matters enormously in an election.
Older voters have traditionally been highly engaged with issues such as superannuation, healthcare, law and order, national identity and economic security — areas where Peters and NZ First have established a distinctive political brand.
But the party’s challenge is whether it can expand beyond its traditional base and turn current polling strength into a durable coalition of voters.
NZ FIRST WANTS ANOTHER TERM
The stakes for Peters are unusually high.
NZ First has participated in governments led by both National and Labour, but it has never returned to Parliament immediately after completing a full term in government.
The party disappeared from Parliament after the 2008 election and again in 2020.
A successful return in 2026 would therefore break a pattern that has followed NZ First for decades.
This time, Peters is campaigning from inside government while still attempting to distinguish NZ First from National and ACT.
That has seen the party stake out independent positions on immigration, economic nationalism, foreign policy and other issues even while remaining a coalition partner.
Under MMP, maintaining that distinct identity could prove critical.
THE PACIFIC QUESTION IS ALSO A MĀORI QUESTION
For Māori, New Zealand’s Pacific relationships have another dimension.
Whakapapa and centuries of movement across Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa connect Māori with the wider Pacific long before modern diplomatic boundaries were established.
Climate change affecting Pacific communities also has parallels here at home, where marae, papakāinga, urupā and coastal Māori communities face increasing environmental pressures.
There are also significant opportunities for Māori businesses and iwi organisations in Pacific trade, renewable energy, food production, fisheries, technology and infrastructure.
That means New Zealand’s Pacific strategy does not need to be understood solely through the lens of competition between China, the United States and Australia.
It can also be about strengthening relationships between Indigenous peoples and building economic and cultural connections across Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.
PETERS STILL AT THE CENTRE OF THE NUMBERS
At 81, Peters remains one of the most enduring figures in New Zealand politics.
His political career has repeatedly been declared finished, only for NZ First to return to Parliament and, on several occasions, government.
The 2026 campaign is shaping up as another test of that durability.
NZ First won 6.1 percent in 2023. Recent polling has generally placed it above that result, although individual surveys continue to fluctuate significantly.
With National and Labour both struggling to dominate the political centre, a strong NZ First result could once again make Peters an important figure in determining who governs after November 7.
And that gives his Pacific mission a domestic political backdrop that cannot be ignored.
Peters returns from the Pacific arguing New Zealand needs to think bigger about its neighbourhood. Back home, the polls suggest voters may also be preparing to give NZ First a bigger role in deciding what happens next.
