Peeni Henare, a legacy Māori politician was staggeringly beaten by a Māori Party who adopted a social media first election campaign that resulted in one of the great by-election upsets.
The latest demographic data on Māori electorates will give Te Pati Māori AND the Greens an enormous amount of optimism going into this years election.
More than half of Māori are still on the Māori roll, which undermines Winston Peters claim that Māori don’t want the Māori Electorates and that he can repeal them after the next election, but it’s the demographics that paint a very interesting story.
70% of the Māori population are under the age of 40, this is an enormous demographic bubble that Te Pati Māori connected with during the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election. This next generation of Māori voters have come through Māori immersion education and refuse point blank to be second class citizens in their own country.
They believe they never ceded sovereignty and view the Treaty with the same passion Americans view their Declaration of Independence.
The Māori Electorates have traditionally been older more conservative Māori but this huge demographic bubble are enormously changing those dynamics.
Nearly 58 percent of Māori aged 18 to 24 are now enrolled on the Māori roll.
This speaks volumes of where those Māori Electorates will now go especially as Te Pati Māori and Greens dominate those age brackets. If the much rumoured Kakariki Alliance between TPM and Greens eventuates and Te Pati Māori advises their supporters to adopt the MMP voting strategy of candidate voting TPM and Party voting Green, it will create an MMP Overhang while recycling wasted TPM vote to the Greens which would keep the Greens above NZF.
Labour view winning back the Māori Electorates as their goal, which damages their MMP chances. They should consider their goal to win back the 23% of Māori in the general seats who voted National.
How this new demographic bubble votes in the Māori Electorates will determine if this Right Wing Government loses or not wins on Election night.
