March 26, 2026

#economy: Modest lift in job confidence before global tensions begin to bite

Matthew Tukaki Posted On March 26, 2026

New Zealand’s labour market showed signs of cautious optimism just before global tensions began escalating, with a slight lift in employment confidence recorded ahead of the Iran conflict.

The latest Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index rose modestly in the March quarter, reflecting a small improvement in how workers view their job prospects and financial security.

The increase suggests that, prior to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, there were early signs of stabilisation in the labour market after a period of economic pressure. Confidence gains were linked to slightly improved perceptions around job availability and earnings, although overall sentiment remains relatively subdued.

Despite the lift, the labour market continues to operate below long-term averages, highlighting ongoing caution among workers and employers. Many households are still navigating cost-of-living pressures, rising interest rates and uncertainty across key sectors of the economy.

The timing of the data is significant, capturing sentiment just before the escalation of conflict involving Iran, which has already begun sending shockwaves through global markets and trade flows.

Economists warn that any improvement in confidence could be short-lived if the conflict leads to sustained increases in fuel prices, inflation and broader economic disruption. New Zealand’s exposure to global supply chains and export markets means international instability can quickly flow through to local conditions.

The result paints a picture of a labour market attempting to regain footing, but still vulnerable to global events beyond its control.

For many whānau, the reality on the ground remains unchanged, with job security and financial stability continuing to sit front of mind as economic uncertainty deepens.