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March 23, 2026
#national: Expert warns New Zealand’s car dependence is strategic risk amid fuel uncertainty
Waatea Team
Posted On March 23, 2026
Download AudioNew Zealand’s heavy reliance on cars is being described as a growing strategic vulnerability, with transport expert Dr Tim Welch warning the country remains exposed to global oil shocks despite having one of the world’s cleanest electricity systems.
Welch says the core issue is not a lack of clean energy, but the structure of the transport system itself. Decades of investment in roads, urban sprawl and car-focused infrastructure have created a system where alternatives are limited or impractical for many New Zealanders. This has locked in dependence on imported fuel, even as the electricity grid becomes increasingly renewable.
The biggest barrier to shifting transport onto that clean electricity, he argues, is not technological but structural. Public transport networks remain underdeveloped in many regions, while urban design continues to prioritise private vehicles. Without significant investment in alternatives, the transition to electrified transport at scale remains constrained.
Recent policy decisions have also drawn criticism. The removal of electric vehicle incentives and reductions in public transport funding are seen as setbacks at a time when global instability is driving fuel price volatility. Welch suggests that reinstating support for EV uptake, alongside sustained investment in reliable and accessible public transport, would be among the most effective ways to reduce exposure to international oil markets.
The closure of the Marsden Point oil refinery has further heightened concerns about energy security. While New Zealand continues to maintain fuel reserves and import refined products, the loss of domestic refining capacity has increased reliance on global supply chains. This, Welch says, adds another layer of risk in times of disruption, particularly when combined with a transport system still heavily dependent on liquid fuels.
Looking ahead, the pathway to a more resilient, low-carbon transport system will require coordinated long-term planning. This includes reshaping cities to reduce the need for car travel, accelerating the electrification of vehicle fleets, and rebuilding public transport systems capable of meeting demand.
Welch notes that while the current political direction may slow progress, opportunities still exist through local government initiatives, private sector innovation and growing public demand for more sustainable transport options.
The challenge, he says, is whether New Zealand is prepared to move from incremental change to a more fundamental shift in how people and goods move around the country.
As global fuel markets remain volatile, the question is no longer just about sustainability – but about resilience, affordability and national security in an increasingly uncertain world.
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