March 08, 2026

#election2026: New poll shows tight election race as centre-left edges ahead

Matthew Tukaki Posted On March 8, 2026

A new political poll suggests the race for government is tightening, with the centre-left bloc holding a narrow lead over the current centre-right coalition.

The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll shows the Labour Party rising slightly to 34.4 percent, while the National Party has dropped to 28.4 percent, its lowest level in the poll since it began.

Support for other parties shows smaller shifts. The Green Party has lifted slightly to 10.5 percent, New Zealand First has slipped to 9.7 percent, and ACT has increased to 7.5 percent. Te Pāti Māori has edged up to 3.2 percent, remaining above its previous result but still below the five-percent threshold.

If those numbers translated directly into seats in Parliament, the centre-left grouping of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 61 seats, just enough to form a government under New Zealand’s MMP system. The centre-right grouping of National, ACT and New Zealand First would hold 59 seats, leaving the balance of power extremely tight.

The poll also examined which party voters trust to manage key policy areas. National continues to lead on issues related to the economy and government spending, while Labour holds the advantage on health, poverty, inflation, education, safety, housing and the environment.

One of the more surprising findings is that voters were more likely to trust Labour rather than National on keeping taxes low, a result that analysts say could concern the Government as it prepares for the next election campaign.

The survey was conducted by Curia Market Research between 1 and 3 March 2026, with a sample of 1,000 eligible voters contacted through phone interviews and an online panel.

With the 2026 general election approaching, the poll underscores just how closely contested the political landscape has become, with neither bloc holding a clear advantage and small shifts in support potentially deciding the outcome