At first glance, the latest release from Stats NZ looks like the kind of headline any government would frame and hang on the wall.
Total exports were valued at $80.7 billion in the year ended December 2025.
That’s an increase of $9.9 billion – up 14 percent.
On paper, it screams momentum. Recovery. Strength.
But scratch beneath the surface and there’s a familiar risk lurking inside the data – a structural vulnerability that has defined our economy for generations.
Because once again, the story of growth is the story of dairy and meat.
Milk powder, butter and cheese led the rise in exports, up $4.2 billion (21 percent) to $24.3 billion for the year ended December 2025.
Breaking that down:
- Milk powder increased by $1.6 billion
- Milk fats (including butter) rose by $1.4 billion
It’s a powerful reminder that dairy remains the engine room of New Zealand’s export economy.
But it’s also the warning. Because commodity prices are not permanent. They move. And they move fast.
The recent trajectory of whole milk powder (WMP) prices shows exactly why that matters:
- 2020–2022 (Rise): Average export prices climbed from $5,063 per tonne in 2020 to $6,024 per tonne by 2023.
- 2023–2024 (Peak and Early Decline): Prices softened to $5,310 per tonne by the end of 2024 as global supply caught up.
- 2025 (Volatility Returns): After surging above US$4,000 per metric tonne in August, prices slid below US$3,400 per metric tonne by November 2025 as global milk production increased.
That’s not a gentle correction. That’s volatility.
And when dairy drives such a large slice of export growth, volatility becomes a national issue – not just a farming one.
Meat and edible offal were the second largest contributor to export growth, up $1.8 billion to $10.4 billion for the year ended December 2025.
The biggest increases by destination:
- United States: up $379 million (15 percent)
- United Kingdom: up $343 million (69 percent)
Again – strong numbers.
But again – commodity-based growth.
We’re still riding the sheep’s back. We’re just doing it in a more modern containerised form.
There has been significant political focus on Free Trade Agreements. India is often cited as the next big frontier.
But history tells us something important: trade deals do not automatically translate into diversified export value.
Market access can be secured – but building distribution networks, brand presence, supply chains and competitive positioning can take years.
Sometimes decades.
So while agreements are signed with fanfare, the real economic uplift can lag well behind the headlines.
And in the meantime? We remain dependent on bulk commodities whose prices we do not control.
This isn’t just an export statistics story.
This is about:
Cost of living pressures, Housing affordability, Regional employment, Wage growth, Resilience of the Māori economy.
Many iwi and Māori agribusiness entities are heavily invested in dairy, meat and primary production. When prices rise, asset values lift and dividends grow. When prices fall, the pressure flows directly into whānau incomes and regional economies.
At the same time, everyday households are grappling with rising food prices, rent, mortgages and insurance costs. An export boom does not automatically translate into relief at the checkout.
That disconnect is the deeper tension. The “grenade” hidden in the data is not that exports grew. It’s that the growth is concentrated.
Nearly half of the export lift is tied to dairy alone. Add meat to the equation, and you are looking at a large portion of national export performance driven by two primary sectors vulnerable to:
Global supply shifts, Geopolitical tensions, Climate events, Currency movements, Demand cycles in China, the US and Europe.
When those cycles turn – and they always do – so does the headline number.
Off the Sheep’s Back
This analysis is part of Waatea’s new economic series, “Off the Sheep’s Back.”
It’s a deeper look at:
- The structure of the Māori economy
- Who really benefits from export growth
- Why diversification remains slow
- And how global volatility impacts whānau at the kitchen table
The $80.7 billion export figure is worth acknowledging. But it should not lull us into thinking the structure of our economy has fundamentally shifted.
Because when milk powder drops from over US$4,000 per tonne to under US$3,400 in three months, that’s not stability.
That’s exposure.
And exposure, in an uncertain global economy, is a risk we can’t afford to ignore.
