You have announced that the 5 yearly census is to be cancelled and replaced. How is this going to work and what will be the major difference? We talk with Minister Shane Reti.
Stats NZ plans to overhaul the traditional census model by using pre-existing administrative data (e.g., from IRD and MSD) as the primary source, supplementing it with targeted surveys. The idea is to improve timeliness, reduce cost to taxpayers and public burden, and align better with “real-time” data sources. However, experts caution that admin-data may exacerbate inequities -especially for Māori, Pacific, recent migrants, and rainbow communities. Concerns include compromised ethnicity, iwi affiliation, language, and disability data quality. During the 2023 Census, Stats NZ used positive incentives-like Warriors tickets and food vouchers-to boost participation, especially among Māori and Pasifika. The current government has signalled these will not be repeated. Instead, they’re considering stricter enforcement and harsher penalties for non-compliance. The 2023 Census encountered significant tech issues, including failures in the “mark-in” system that led to over 100,000 unnecessary field visits, delays, and public frustration. Additionally, coverage fell below targets, with Māori response particularly low; driven by anti-government sentiment and trust issues. Reviews are ongoing, with possible delays or phased rollout for 2028 based on addressing these flaws. The 2023 Census, run by Stats NZ, suffered from poor participation rates, particularly among Māori. Despite targeted outreach and incentives, such as Warriors tickets and supermarket vouchers, many Māori either chose not to participate or were never reached. The final Māori response rate was significantly lower than the national average, repeating and worsening the gaps seen in the 2018 Census.
Contributing factors included:
- Distrust in government institutions, especially post-COVID.
- Technical failures, including issues with the “mark-in” system that mistakenly triggered tens of thousands of unnecessary field visits.
- Cultural disconnect, where the process was seen as bureaucratic and not grounded in tikanga Māori.
- Under-resourced outreach in rural and isolated Māori communities
What This Means for Māori
- Underfunding of Essential Services
Census data drives funding for health, education, housing, infrastructure, and social services. When Māori are undercounted:
- DHBs and health providers may receive insufficient funding for Māori-specific health services.
- School planning and education initiatives may not accurately reflect tamariki Māori needs.
- Housing developments and Whānau Ora support structures may be under-resourced, failing to meet real demand.
- Distortion of Iwi Affiliation Data
Accurate iwi affiliation data helps iwi plan development initiatives, advocate for resources, and settle Treaty claims. Census failure meant:
- Incomplete iwi data, undermining Treaty settlement monitoring and post-settlement development planning.
- Weakened ability for iwi to negotiate funding or support tailored to their rohe and needs.
- Political Representation and Accountability
Undercounting Māori can influence the drawing of electoral boundaries and the allocation of Māori seats in Parliament. It weakens the democratic power of Māori and their ability to hold governments accountable through the ballot box.
- Worsening Inequity in Policy Design
Inaccurate data leads to poorly designed policy that does not reflect the realities of Māori communities. Whether it’s employment programmes, mental health strategies, or rangatahi support, policies built on flawed data tend to fail.
Many Māori leaders have condemned the failure as “avoidable” and “damaging.”
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said:
“When Māori are not counted, we are made invisible. That is not just a data issue-it’s a breach of Te Tiriti.”
Independent reviewers, such as Nicholson Consulting, warned that the government’s proposal to shift future censuses to rely on administrative data could worsen inequities and further disconnect Māori from participation.
