September 16, 2021
Dr Rawiri Taonui Delta OutBreak | Māori cases continue to rise
Today’s Cases
There are 13 new cases in the Delta OutBreak today. The Ministry of Health has reassigned the ethnicity of three other cases. There is a total of 996 cases in the Delta OutBreak.
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The number of recovered cases has risen to 460. The number of active cases in MIQ rose by nine to 565, but still well down from the outbreak peak of 770. This number must drop further to reduce the risk of secondary bounce back infections into the community from MIQ.
Māori, Middlemore, Seven Suburbs and Three Sub-Clusters
The total number of Māori cases rises by 12 to 116. Māori are the highest number of cases for the 4th time in the last six days, and 44.7% (55) of 116 cases reported during that period.
The increase in Māori cases in Auckland appears linked to cases who presented at Middlemore Hospital last week. They are also connected to the 10 ‘mystery cases’ and three of 10 subclusters not yet linked to the wider Delta OutBreak. We also know from yesterday that there are two cases in the Mongrel Mob Kingdom Takanini community. Locations of Interest associated with this group are situated around the Massey, Mt Eden, Manurewa, Favona, Papatoetoe. , Ōtara, and Māngere suburbs. Concerted symptomatic and asymptomatic testing is underway in these suburbs with between 1,700 and 2,500 tests conducted per day.
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The most concerning mystery cases are in three unlinked groups, suspected of continuing community transmission. One group has 51 cases. The last case in this group was on 8 September meaning transmission is slowing down. Another of these clusters has 28 cases and is a group of households in Māngere and Manurewa. The last case was from September 10. There are several contacts; the Ministry expects more cases.
Māori and Pacific Vaccination
The rate of Māori vaccination has increased. As of yesterday, a total of 43.2% of the eligible 12yrs+ Māori population had received at least one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine of which 20.7% are fully vaccinated. The proportion of Māori vaccinations relative to the overall New Zealand figure has increased from a low of 0.52 during late August to 0.63.
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Māori remain the largest proportion of unvaccinated people particularly in the 20- to 34-year-old age group. In the District Health Board areas of Northland, Auckland Metro, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Te Tai Rāwhiti, the Lakes District, Taranaki, Whanganui, Hawkes Bay, Nelson-Marlborough, and the West Coast, vaccinations in this demographic average between 40% and 50% of the national average.
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Projecting the First Single-Digit Case Day
The following graph compares the daily and total cases of the current Delta OutBreak to Day 31 with last year’s First Wave to Day 50. Last year, Day 50 was the first day of single-digit cases (8).
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The government has done well to bring down the peak number of daily cases of the hyper-infectious Delta Variant. At 15 days since bending/flattening the curve and not yet at single-digit cases, Delta is showing a longer tail than the First Wave where it took 12 days from bending/flattening the curve to reach the first single-digit day and 19 more days before the country reported zero cases for the first time. We may therefore see more cases for another two to three weeks.
This has implications for when the government might begin opening Auckland. Anything too soon, even with low case numbers, risks a quick resurgence. There is also the ongoing risk of a secondary bounce back breach from MIQ if active case numbers do not come down significantly. If the government decides to go to Level Three, then that must be for at least two weeks.
Remember to follow the alert levels and not be like those idiots reported in the media who went to Wanaka, tried to take drugs through checkpoints and went from Auckland to Northland to buy a boat. Wear a mask in all social situations outside your bubble and scan or record where you have been. We are a team of 5 million.
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Kia noho haumaru, stay safe.
Dr Rawiri Taonui