April 28, 2020
Dr Rawiri Taonui | COVID Māori Update 28 April 2020 | Day 1 – Alert Level 3
COVID Māori Update 28 April 2020 | Day 1 – Alert Level 3
Dr Rawiri Taonui
New and Total Cases
There are 3 new confirmed and probable cases today. Total cases are 1472. There are no new deaths. The total remains 19. New cases are single digit for 10 consecutive days 9-9-5-6-3-5-5-9-5-3.
Recovered and Active Cases
82.5% or 1214 of all cases have recovered. Every recovered case is one less risk. There is a new low for active cases of 239. We are on track for active cases to fall well below 50 by 11 May when the government will consider moving down from Level 3.
It is likely that there will be a further outbreak. There are new cases every day. There is high testing in some Māori and Pacific communities, but much lower testing in others, something the Ministry of Health and DHBs obscure. As we move into Level 3, many people are not holding to the rules around staying at home and social distancing.
Māori and Pacific Data
The following are the four main metrics the problematic use of which by the Ministry of Health uses (or does not use) to present data for Māori and Pacific communities:
1. National Testing Data
The Ministry periodically releases national and regional level testing data. The national data includes testing by ethnicity. This is helpful; however, the last release was 10 days ago.
2. DHB Testing Data
The Ministry does not release Māori and Pacific testing data by region. It has once released some data showing ethnic testing by 100,000 of population. This requires adjustment to fit with the national and DHB figures which are given as tests per1000 of the population. The last release was ten days ago. This does not assist Māori and Pacific communities to identify and focus their considerable energies on priority areas as we move through Level 3 to a decision about the next move on 11 May.
3. National Total Cases
The Ministry ceased releasing the national totals of Māori and Pacific cases on 26 April. The Ministry now releases a percentage figure rounded up or down to the nearest whole number. That number will change only every 7 new cases. Considering recent new cases for Māori and Pacific have often been between zero and 2, in practice, this will hide new cases in Māori and Pacific communities’ cases for a period commensurate with the timetable to step down from Level 3 on 11 May.
4. Total Cases by DHB
The Ministry does not release the whole numbers of Māori and Pacific by DHB. There has been a single exception to this rule from the Northland DHB. Rather than release the actual number of Māori and Pacific cases by DHB, the Ministry has once released the percentage of positive Māori and Pacific cases by the total number of tests in each DHB. This figure does not include probable cases, therefore a total of confirmed and probable cases cannot be given. The methodology is obscure and of no assistance. The last release was 10 days ago.
The Ministry does not release deceased cases by ethnicity. It does release deaths by age.
The Ministry no longer releases the number of Māori cases. Instead, they release a percentage figure rounded up or down to the nearest whole number. This system means that new cases will only show when there are 7 new ones. The community will not notice any new cases for several days. Then, the percentage will change to 10% and read as 14 new cases. The inaccurate Ministry percentage converted into numbers is marked in purple.
The Ministry no longer releases the number of Pacific cases. Instead, they release a percentage figure rounded up or down to the nearest whole number. This system means that new cases will only show when there are 7 new ones. The community will not notice any new cases for several days. Then, the percentage will change to 6% and read as 14 new cases. The inaccurate Ministry percentage converted into numbers is marked in purple.
Māori and Pacific Percentage Cases
The following table presents Māori and Pacific cases alongside the Ministry of Health’s model of population which allocates one identity per person for anyone who for example identifies as Māori and Pacific, and, Census 2018 which allows a person to self-identify with more than one ethnicity.
Noho haumaru stay safe and self-sovereign, Dr Rawiri Taonui.
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