April 19, 2020
Dr Rawiri Taonui | Covid-19 Update for Māori April 19 2020
Covid-19 Update for Māori April 19 2020 | Testing of Māori & Pacific Peoples improves after pressure | Moving to Level 3
Dr Rawiri Taonui
Tomorrow, the Government will decide on whether we stay at Alert Level 4 or move to Level 3. The following are the key factors in deciding whether we remain at Alert Level 4, move to Level 3 and if the latter is the decision what the time frame would be over coming weeks.
New and Total Cases
There are 9 new cases. Total cases are 1431. Deaths are 12. New cases continue a 2-week decline from a peak of 89 to 9.
Recovered and Active Cases
Recovered cases are 912, the first time over 900. Active Cases, the total of all cases less recovered and deaths, continue their fall from 930 eight days ago to 507 today.
Total tests are 83,224 at 16,644tpm (tests per million of population). Our rate of testing is higher than countries like Australia, Canada, Belgium and the USA. Other countries such as Norway, Switzerland, Portugal, Israel, Italy, Germany, Spain and Austria are higher at 19,000 to 26,000tpm.
There are no new Māori cases today. The total remains at 121 and 8.5% of all cases. Over the last 8 days, there have been 12 new cases. In the first 6 days of April, there were 45. There is a distinct levelling of cases. We need to know how many are recovered and active cases. The Ministry has not provided this information. With steadily increasing testing of Māori, we can have confidence that our numbers are flattening.
Pacific Peoples Cases
There is 1 new Pacific case and a total of 66. Pacific stay on 4.6% of all cases.
This graphic presents the number of cases by ethnicity against the ethnic demographics from the 2018 Census, which counts multiple identities, and the Ministry of Health population model that counts a single identity. The two figures establish a Range of Risk. A percentage figure of positive cases approaching the lowest figure in the Range of Risk should be regarded as a concern, anything higher is more serious.
Update: Testing of Māori and Pacific Peoples
The following table compares testing for 40,000 tests to 9 April, and including those tests, a total of 59,500 tests to 14 April.
The table includes both the ethnic demographic from Census 2018, which allows a single person to identify with more than one ethnic group, and the Ministry of Health model of the population which only allows single ethnic identity.
The distinction is important. The Ministry model is based on a 2019/2020 estimate of the population considering immigration and natural increase. Under this model, the number of Pākehā, Māori and Asian all increase. However, the Pacific population is 60,000 less than in Census 2018. It also does not consider a probable 5,000 in estimated growth.
The most likely reason for this is that the Ministry is counting as Māori or Pākehā, many of those who identified as Māori and Pacific, or, Pacific and Pākehā in the Census. There is a distinct possibility that individuals, for example of Māori and Pacific descent, give identities different to the Ministry count. The Pacific figures indexed against population should, therefore, be regarded as a possible under-estimation of Pacific.
On 9 April, testing for Māori and Pacific was abysmally under the demographic for Census 2018. Māori were also under the demographic for the Ministry population model. After pressure from Māori and Pacific leaders and community workers, Māori and Pacific are now both over the Ministry demographic but remain under the Census 2018 demographic. The Ministry needs to further lift testing of our communities. Of related concern, the Asian demographic is also being under-tested. Testing is improving, but the pattern of under-testing non-Pākehā groups continues at least up to 15 April.
Noho haumaru stay safe and self-sovereign, Dr Rawiri Taonui
Copyright © 2020, UMA Broadcasting Ltd: www.waateanews.com