April 10, 2015
Northland final result cements tide change against National


Northland final result cements tide change against National
MARTYN BRADBURY
10 APRIL 2015
The final results from the Northland by-election have been missed in the churn of Campbell Live being threatened with the axe and anger at MP spouses travelling overseas.
The final result needs to be examined further because it is devastating for the Government.
On the night, Winston won by a majority of 4012, but after the final count, Winston increased that majority to a bewildering 4441. The by-election saw a turn out of 65.4% of the electorate which makes it one of the largest by-election turn outs in modern political history.
This majority alongside the huge voter turn out suggests that something has changed in the deep heartland of National. The fake Rock Star economy is propped up on the loose foundations of taking Dairy prices, Auckland's property bubble and rebuilding from a national disaster in Christchurch. Beyond that, National's 'leave it to the market' approach has seen little infrastructure investment in the provinces and even less jobs.
Our media like to gloss over poverty as plush homes in leafy suburbs keep increasing in false value, but the grim reality of poverty in the regions has driven previously staunch National voters to seek political alternatives. Voting for Labour is outside their comfort zone, and they would never seriously consider the Greens, but NZ First's brand of garden variety bigotry and nationalistic conservatism is a perfect vehicle for provincial aspirations.
If Winston can concentrate on making NZ First the voice of the provinces, safe blue seats will become marginal forcing National to spend money in electorates during the election that were previously solid.
There is much for Key to worry about over the next 2 years.
Martyn Bradbury
Editor – TheDailyBlog.co.nz
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